The 2021 NFL regular season is almost upon us, so today we look at three teams who we believe are on the brink of a meaningful decline in both on-field results and public perception.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- 2020 Actual W-L: 12-4
- 2020 Pythagorean W-L: 10.6-5.4
- 2020 One-Possession Game W-L: 7-2
- 2020 SOS: 31st
- 2021 SOS: 1st
The Steelers have been a paragon of stability, posting just a single losing record this century, but all good things must come to an end, and there are signs Pittsburgh is standing at the precipice.
Ben Roethlisberger returns for an 18th season in 2021, but is that a good thing at this point? Pittsburgh’s offense was dismal in 2020, finishing 22th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Heavy guys have rarely aged well in any sport, and, well, they don’t call the guy Big Ben for nothing.
The Steelers were 16th in passing success rate but the aerial attack lacked any pop whatsoever, finishing 25th in passing explosiveness. The running game was so non-existent Pittsburgh simply abandoned it. The Steelers were 32nd in rushing success rate and 31st in rushing explosiveness. And they did all of this against the 29th-ranked slate of opposing defenses.
In the playoffs, a Cleveland team that the Steelers have bullied for decades ambushed Pittsburgh, taking a 28-0 lead in the first quarter, and continued to punch its long-time oppressor in the mouth. Pittsburgh got some TDs in garbage time to make the final score of 48-37 look somewhat respectable, but make no mistake, it was a blowout.
Big Ben chucked four picks and had a snap sail over his head 14 seconds into the game, leading to an instant Browns touchdown, and the entire game just had the feel of two trains going in opposite directions, passing each other in the night.
Although Pittsburgh did post a really solid +104 point differential in 2020, the Steelers outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by 1.4 wins and were 7-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points.
Fast forward to 2021, and you have a 39-year-old quarterback trying to lead a resurgence against the NFL’s toughest projected schedule in a division that features two serious contenders in Cleveland and Baltimore. Regression is coming for the Steelers and it wouldn’t surprise us if it was an avalanche of regression.
Tennessee Titans
- 2020 Actual W-L: 11-5
- 2020 Pythagorean W-L: 9.1-6.9
- 2020 One-Possession Game W-L: 7-2
- 2020 SOS: 26th
- 2021 SOS: 12th
For being a former NFL linebacker and a defensive guy as a coach, Titans boss Mike Vrbael has yet to see even average results on the defensive side of the ball.
Sure, the Titans have produced three straight winning records with Vrabel in charge, including an 11-5 mark last season, but it has been in spite of the defense. After finishing 18th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric in each of Vrabel’s first two seasons, the Titans sunk to 29th in 2020, despite playing a slightly below average slate of opposing offenses.
Meanwhile, behind the improbable resurgence of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the powerful running of Derrick Henry and the savvy play-calling of Arthur Smith, the Titans’ offense improved from 23rd in offensive DVOA in 2018 to sixth in 2019 and fourth in 2020.
While that type of improvement should be cause for celebration, the Tennessee offense will get tested in a major way in 2021 with the departure of Smith to the Falcons. Will Tannehill lose some of his mojo?
On top of that, there are concerns about what becomes of the Titans offense should Henry decline at all. Henry has led the NFL in rushing attempts each of the last two seasons. If he holds up and does it again in 2021, he’ll be the first player to do it in three straight years since Walter Payton in the late 1970s.
Last season, the Titans went 11-5 despite a Pythagorean expectation that implied a 9-7 record. Tennessee’s 7-2 record in one-possession games was the difference maker. In 2021, despite the weak division, the schedule gets tougher, jumping from 26th to 12th in strength.
The departure of Smith as play-caller, the expected regression in the outcome of close games, concerns about Henry’s ability to sustain that workload, and the tougher schedule have us bearish about the Titans’ fortunes in 2021.
Green Bay Packers
- 2020 Actual W-L: 13-3
- 2020 Pythagorean W-L: 10.9-5.1
- 2020 One-Possession Game W-L: 3-2
- 2020 SOS: 23rd
- 2021 SOS: 7th
If Aaron Rodgers remains at the level he played at in 2020 and the defense improves a bit, the Packers could very well find themselves hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. But there are at least a few red flags that give us pause.
First, the Packers outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by a whopping 3.3 wins in 2019, going 13-3 despite a point differential that translated to 9.7 wins. Instead of seeing regression in 2020, the Packers once again went 13-3, in spite of a Pythagorean expectation of 10.9 wins. That means Green Bay has now outperformed expectations by 5.4 wins over the last two seasons.
Second, the Packers scored touchdowns on 80% of red zone visits in 2020, the best mark in the league by 5 percentage points. Defensively, Green Bay was eighth in terms of limiting opponents in the red zone, giving up TDs on 57.7% of possessions. Even for an assassin like Rodgers, the 80% red zone TD rate feels unsustainable, and if there is regression in the red zone on both sides of the ball, it will have a real impact on the Packers’ fate.
Third, Green Bay’s schedule ticks up in difficulty in 2021. Last year, the Packers faced the NFL’s 23rd-toughest schedule. This season, Green Bay projects to play the seventh-toughest slate. Road trips to New Orleans, San Francisco, Kansas City and Baltimore await, while the Packers draw tough home games in Pittsburgh, Seattle, the Rams and Cleveland.
Vegas bookmakers don’t seem to be fooled. When look-ahead lines were released in June for all 18 weeks, we estimated the Packers’ power rating to be -1, meaning Green Bay would be favored by 1 point vs. an average NFL team on a neutral field. When factoring in the Packers’ schedule, that power rating translates to a 9-8 record. Similarly, Football Outsiders estimates 9.6 wins for the Packers.
There is risk that Rodgers makes this prediction look foolish, but we like the regression gods to even the score in 2021, meaning the Packers are a slight fade for us.
