Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 12 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 31-17-0 ATS (64.6%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 19-9-0 ATS (67.9%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 8-4-0 ATS (66.7%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants (vs. PHI) | +3.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (at DET) | -2.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (at DAL) | +7.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Titans (at NE) | +6.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (at IND) | -3.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Saints (vs. BUF) | +6.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Steelers (at CIN) | +4.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Jets (at HOU) | +2.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rams (at GB) | -1.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. ATL) | +1.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (vs. CAR) | +2.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. CLE) | -3.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Football Team (vs. SEA) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Chargers (at DEN) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. LAC) | +2.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Vikings (at SF) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. MIN) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at JAX) | -1.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Panthers (at MIA) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Browns (at BAL) | +3.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at WAS) | +1.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Bills (at NO) | -6.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. PIT) | -4.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (vs. NYJ) | -2.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Packers (vs. LAR) | +1.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Colts (vs. TB) | +3.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Lions (vs. CHI) | +2.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. LV) | -7.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. TEN) | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Eagles (at NYG) | -3.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
Week 12 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 32-23 (58.1%)
This week’s picks:
- Bills -6.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Giants +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Titans +6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Rams -1.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Browns +3.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Bills opened -4 and the line has ballooned all the way out to nearly a full TD, but we’re going to lay it anyway. The Saints are decimated on offense. Pro Bowl tackle Ryan Ramczyk is out, and the Saints’ other star tackle, Terron Armstead, is questionable. That is not good news for Trevor Siemian, who is without Alvin Kamara and could be without Mark Ingram too. Buffalo looked like the best team in the NFL at the start of November before recent slip-ups against Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Let’s bank on a bounce-back here for the Bills.
…The Giants looked horrible in a Monday Night Football demolition by the Buccaneers and responded by firing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. In steps Freddie Kitchens, who was a dynamic signal-caller as Browns OC before stumbling as a head coach. With Saquon Barkley finally back in the lineup and Kadarius Toney looking like an explosive play waiting to happen, let’s see if the Giants play with a devil-may-care attitude here. New York is a +4 in our HIGBEE model and our best value of the week.
…The Titans were on top of the world after winning six straight games, including showdowns with the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints during a recent five-week stretch. It all came crashing down in a shocking home loss to the dreadful Texans last week. As ugly as that outcome was, Tennessee still outgained Houston 420-190. The look-ahead line in this game was Patriots -3 but this is what happens when you have a New England team that is a public darling and has won five straight games going against a banged-up Titans side. If A.J. Browns returns to the lineup, the Titans are an excellent value.
…The market is suddenly down on the Rams after disappointing losses to the Titans and 49ers, but we think Sean McVay, Matt Stafford & Co. will regroup coming out of the bye and put together a focused effort. Green Bay was already down franchise tackle David Bakhtiari and will now be without its second best lineman Elgton Jenkins after a season-ending ACL injury. Aaron Rodgers is battling what sounds like a painful toe injury. Davante Adams is limited by an ankle injury and is questionable. And star corner Jaire Alexander remains on IR.
…The Browns have lost some of their luster after inexplicable blowouts at the hands of Arizona and New England, not to mention a slog with the pitiful Lions last week. Baltimore though is a shocking 27th in defensive DVOA and is on pace to have its worst defense since the mid-’90s, and that doesn’t bode well against a Cleveland team that finally gets back the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this week. The Browns have a great shot to win this game outright.
Week 13 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | Dallas (-5) at New Orleans |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-9.5) at Atlanta |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Arizona (-7) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers at Cincinnati (-1.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Minnesota (-7.5) at Detroit |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Miami (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Philadelphia (-6.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis (-7) at Houston |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Washington at Las Vegas (-1.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Jacksonville at L.A. Rams (-12.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-3) at Pittsburgh |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | San Francisco (-2) at Seattle |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Denver at Kansas City (-9.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | New England at Buffalo (-3.5) |
