Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 14 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 33-33-0 ATS (50.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 18-14-0 ATS (56.3%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-4-0 ATS (33.3%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans (at DAL) | +16.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at TEN) | +4.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (at PIT) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (at SF) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (at LAC) | -3.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. NE) | +1.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Browns (at CIN) | +6.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. CAR) | -3.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at DEN) | -9.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. NYJ) | -9.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Rams (vs. LV) | +6.5 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Vikings (at DET) | +2.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. PHI) | +6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Eagles (at NYG) | -6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Raiders (at LAR) | -6.5 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. MIN) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Jets (at BUF) | +9.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Broncos (vs. KC) | +9.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bengals (vs. CLE) | -6.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Panthers (at SEA) | +3.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. MIA) | +3.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Patriots (at ARI) | -1.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. TB) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. BAL) | -2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. JAX) | -4.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. HOU) | -16.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 14 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 44-21 (67.7%)
This week’s picks:
- Rams +6.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Jaguars +4.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Texans +16.5: 1 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Broncos +9.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chargers +3.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
After last week’s disastrous Thursday backing of the Patriots, we got back on track with a winner on the Rams, although it took some fourth-quarter heroics from Baker Mayfield of all people. Our market-implied power ratings had made this closer to LV -4.
…Jacksonville had been showing signs of improvement before last week’s absolute no-show in Detroit, where the Jags were pummeled 40-14. But speaking of pummeled, that’s exactly what happened to the Titans in Philly, where the Eagles cruised to an easy 35-10 win. In addition, Ryan Tannehill lost field-stretching rookie Treylon Burks to a concussion, which takes some of the pop out of Tennessee’s offense. Even though the Titans have the division nearly locked up at 7-5, they have a worse point differential than 4-8 Jacksonville. The live market on this game has moved to JAX +3.5, so we’ll lock in the stale contest line of +4.5 and bank on a Trevor Lawrence bounce-back.
…Let’s dumpster dive as Houston travels up I-45 to meet the Cowboys. Since 1990, teams that are getting at least 16 points with a total of fewer than 45 are 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%). As horrific as the Texans are, Davis Mills’ return this week after a two-week benching is a welcome sight because Kyle Allen ain’t nobody’s answer. While Dallas might be a legit Super Bowl contender, let us not forget it only led Indy 21-19 entering the fourth quarter last week before the Colts self-immolated and allowed the Cowboys to hang five rapid-fire TDs.
…Backing the Broncos requires a blindfold and holding your nose for 3 hours, but let’s give it a whirl anyway. Denver’s D has been up to the challenge all season and we should expect nothing less against the hated Chiefs at Mile High. This was a pick ’em on the offseason look-ahead, so we’ve moved through the most valuable stretch of real estate in football — the all-important keys of 3 and 7, plus secondary keys such as 4, 6 and 8.
…As disappointing as the perpetually and chronically injury-riddled Chargers have been this season, we know that price matters, and this one is juicy. The Chargers were -5.5 on the offseason look-ahead so we have traveled through the 3 on both sides of zero. Swiss Army knife safety Derwin James is doubtful, which gives us pause against Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. But on the other side of the ball, Justin Herbert finally has the services of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. This should be an “all in” spot for L.A. at 6-6 with dwindling playoff hopes.
Week 15 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | San Francisco (-1) at Seattle |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | NFLN | Indianapolis at Minnesota (-5.5) |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | NFLN | Baltimore at Cleveland (-3) |
| Sat | 8:15 PM | NFLN | Miami at Buffalo (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at New Orleans (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Philadelphia (-8) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Dallas (-6) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Detroit at N.Y. Jets (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-14) at Houston |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Arizona at Denver (-1.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | New England at Las Vegas (-2) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Tennessee at L.A. Chargers (-2) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Cincinnati (-2.5) at Tampa Bay |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | N.Y. Giants at Washington (-4) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | L.A. Rams at Green Bay (-9) |
