Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 16 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 39-38-0 ATS (50.6%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 23-16-0 ATS (59.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 5-5-0 ATS (50.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings (vs. NYG) | -4.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. ATL) | -5.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (at CHI) | -8.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Commanders (at SF) | +7.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Eagles (at DAL) | +5.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (at MIA) | +3.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Jaguars (at NYJ) | +1.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Panthers (vs. DET) | +2.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Patriots (vs. CIN) | +3.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (at PIT) | +2.5 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (at TEN) | +3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Saints (at CLE) | +2.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Rams (vs. DEN) | +2.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (vs. TB) | +8.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Colts (vs. LAC) | +5.5 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at KC) | +9.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Chiefs (vs. SEA) | -9.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Broncos (at LAR) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (at ARI) | -8.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at IND) | -5.5 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Titans (vs. HOU) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. NO) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Bengals (at NE) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. LV) | -2.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Lions (at CAR) | -2.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jets (vs. JAX) | -1.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Dolphins (vs. GB) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Bears (vs. BUF) | +8.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (vs. WAS) | -7.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. PHI) | -5.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at BAL) | +5.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Giants (at MIN) | +4.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 16 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 2-3
- YTD: 51-24 (68.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Jets -2.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Commanders +7.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Eagles +5.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Broncos -2.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Colts +5.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
We opened the week on Thursday night by backing Zach Wi-. Yeah, that’s the end of that analysis.
…We faded Brock Purdy last week in his first road start, but the rookie seventh-rounder was unfazed as Kyle Shanahan’s offense sliced and diced the overwhelmed Seahawks. But let’s double down on our Purdy fade and cross our fingers that this is the spot the youngster gets a rude NFL welcoming. The Commanders D is sixth in EPA per play on the season and trending even better — third over the last five weeks. Now, highly touted edge rusher Chase Young returns to the fold for the first time this season. The live market shows this game at either SF -6.5 or soft 7, ensuring value with the locked-in contest line. This is an all-in, desperation spot for Washington.
…Even without MVP candidate Jalen Hurts, Philly has a few things going for itself on Christmas Eve in Dallas. First, late-season divisional battles tend to be more tightly contested games due to familiarity, giving value to the underdog. Next, Gardner Minshew is one of the better backups — if not the top backup — in the NFL and should have some success against a depleted Cowboys secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ trending metrics against the run are a huge improvement over their season-long numbers. And last, Dak Prescott has been unreliable lately, throwing a league-high 10 interceptions since returning from his thumb injury. #FlyEaglesFly
…When we look back on things at the end of the season, the Rams’ shocking Thursday night, Baker Mayfield-fueled fourth-quarter comeback against the Raiders might represent their last gasp for the season. Even factoring in that monster fourth-quarter rally, the Rams’ trending metrics on offense are absolutely atrocious. As many problems as the Broncos have had this season, the defense has been stout the entire way, and it’s difficult to see L.A. having any success whatsoever here. Last but not least, we’d be remiss without mentioning the Rams’ utter lack of a home-field advantage, which could be magnified in a sleepy Christmas Day spot.
…Nick Foles steps in as the Colts’ third starting QB of the season and faces a Chargers D that ranks in the bottom half of the league in nearly all EPA and success metrics. While Brandon Staley’s D has been trending better of late, this appears to be too many points to lay for a Chargers team that has struggled mightily to meet expectations the last two seasons. Two ratings systems we like to use as a sanity check — Sagarin and Massey-Peabody — both make this game well inside 3 points. The market seems to agree as we’re seeing this number as low as 4 at Pinnacle. Let’s lock in the 5.5 points and roll with Jeff Saturday’s crew for a second straight week.
Week 17 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Dallas (-6) at Tennessee |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at Detroit (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Arizona at Atlanta (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans at Philadelphia (-5.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at Tampa Bay (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Cleveland at Washington (-2) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville (-5.5) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Denver at Kansas City (-10) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami (-3) at New England |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis at N.Y Giants (-3) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | San Francisco (-4.5) at Las Vegas |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | N.Y. Jets at Seattle (PK) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | L.A. Rams at L.A. Chargers (-9) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Buffalo (-1.5) at Cincinnati |
