Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 17 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 41-41-0 ATS (50.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 24-17-0 ATS (58.5%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 5-6-0 ATS (45.5%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders (vs. SF) | +10.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at NE) | +2.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. DAL) | +14.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. CAR) | -3.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (at ATL) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Broncos (at KC) | +12.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. PIT) | -2.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. NYJ) | +1.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (at CIN) | -0.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (at NYG) | +6.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (at PHI) | +5.5 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Vikings (at GB) | +3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Rams (at LAC) | +6.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Browns (at WAS) | +2.5 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Lions (vs. CHI) | -6.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Jaguars (at HOU) | -5.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bears (at DET) | +6.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Texans (vs. JAX) | +5.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Commanders (vs. CLE) | -2.5 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. MIN) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. LAR) | -6.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Eagles (vs. NO) | -5.5 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Giants (vs. IND) | -6.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at TEN) | -14.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Panthers (at TB) | +3.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. ARI) | -3.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (vs. DEN) | -12.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Steelers (at BAL) | +2.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jets (at SEA) | -1.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. BUF) | +0.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. MIA) | -2.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at LV) | -10.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 17 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 0-5
- YTD: 51-29 (63.8%)
This week’s picks:
- Titans +14.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Bears +6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Texans +5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Broncos +12.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Raiders +10.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
Week 18 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Dallas at Washington (-4.5) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-2) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-1) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Arizona at San Francisco (-10.5) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | New England at Buffalo (-8.5) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-2) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Carolina at New Orleans (-3) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | N.Y. Jets at Miami (PK) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | L.A. Chargers at Denver (-1) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Baltimore at Cincinnati (-6) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Minnesota (-2.5) at Chicago |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Tennessee at Jacksonville (-5.5) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Detroit at Green Bay (-3) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Kansas City (-10.5) at Las Vegas |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | Houston at Indianapolis (-2.5) |
| Sun | TBD | TBD | L.A. Rams at Seattle (-3) |
