Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 18 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 48-43-0 ATS (52.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 26-17-0 ATS (60.5%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 6-6-0 ATS (50.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders (vs. DAL) | +7.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (at SEA) | +6.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Ravens (at CIN) | +7.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. TEN) | -6.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. LAC) | -2.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at SF) | +14.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (vs. NE) | -6.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Colts (vs. HOU) | -2.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Panthers (at NO) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (at PIT) | +2.5 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at LV) | -8.5 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Bears (vs. MIN) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jets (at MIA) | +2.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. DET) | -4.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. NYG) | -14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. TB) | -4.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (at GB) | +4.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Giants (at PHI) | +14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (at ATL) | +4.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. CAR) | -3.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. CLE) | -2.5 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Raiders (vs. KC) | +8.5 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Vikings (at CHI) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. NYJ) | -2.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Texans (at IND) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| 49ers (vs. ARI) | -14.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Patriots (at BUF) | +6.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Titans (at JAX) | +6.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Chargers (at DEN) | +2.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at WAS) | -7.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (vs. LAR) | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. BAL) | -7.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 18 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 54-31 (63.5%)
This week’s picks:
- Raiders +8.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Titans +6.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Ravens +7.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Giants +14.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Rams +6.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
We opened the weekend by seeing if we could capture one more week of that Jarrett Stidham magic, which… was a bad idea. The Raiders had a chance to get the ball back with good field position trailing 14-3 in the second quarter when Maxx Crosby was called for roughing the passer on third down in the end zone. Anyway, it turned into a 12-play, 98-yard Patrick Mahomes scoring drive and the game was effectively over.
…We dug ourselves out of that 0-1 hole with the Titans, who took a 10-0 lead and were covering the number for all 60 minutes Saturday night. Tennessee had a shot for the improbable outright win when The Other Josh Allen™ scored on a 37-yard strip sack of Joshua Dobbs to give the Jaguars a 20-16 lead and the AFC South title.
…To lead off Sunday’s slate, let’s roll the dice on the Ravens in Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson may or may not play, but regardless, this is a big number to cover with such a low total — 39.5 at the time of writing. We also can’t help but wonder what this week’s distractions mean for the Bengals. Will we get a focused enough effort to cover this number in what could be a classic AFC North rock fight to end the season?
…The Giants have no incentive to play starters against the Eagles, causing this line to touch 17 in some spots, but we’ll grab the 14.5 with the Giants anyway. This is a massive number to cover in a game where we have another relatively low total (42) and Jalen Hurts isn’t 100% even if he returns.
…We know that teams that have air-quotes “nothing to play for” are +EV in the last week of the NFL season, so let’s play that angle here and bank on the Rams showing up one last time in what could be Sean McVay’s final game before he steps away from a roster in rapid decline. We also really like it that the Rams were bad last week after walloping Denver on Christmas. Had that obliteration of the Broncos occurred last week, we wouldn’t be so keen on grabbing L.A. here. Just for reference, this game was L.A. -5.5 on the offseason look-ahead, so we are through the 3 on both sides of zero and out through the secondary key of 6, which is a pretty big premium to pay if you like the Seahawks here.
