Mapping out the road to the Frozen Four

The puck drops Thursday on the 2023 NCAA hockey tournament at four regional sites. All roads lead to Tampa, Fla., site of the Frozen Four on April 6-8.

Log5 is a method of estimating the probability that team A will win a game against team B, based on the odds ratio between the estimated winning probability of Team A and Team B against a larger set of teams.

We got the idea from the popular college hoops blog Kenpom, which posts one every year. We explained it in greater detail when forecasting the NCAA basketball tournament.

In order to make Log5 work, we need to assign a rating for each team in the tournament as a starting point. For this exercise, we used the well-known college hockey ratings system KRACH.

Here is our Log5 forecast for the 2023 NCAA hockey tournament:

Regional	Seed	Team	Regional Final	Frozen Four	Final	Champ
Fargo	1	Minnesota	89.2%	58.5%	37.7%	23.6%
Fargo	4	Canisius	10.8%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%
Fargo	2	St. Cloud State	53.0%	21.6%	10.9%	5.3%
Fargo	3	Minnesota State	47.0%	17.9%	8.5%	3.9%
Manchester	1	Denver	67.6%	39.9%	19.4%	10.5%
Manchester	4	Cornell	32.4%	13.2%	4.2%	1.5%
Manchester	2	Boston University	56.4%	27.9%	11.9%	5.7%
Manchester	3	Western Michigan	43.6%	18.9%	6.9%	2.9%
Allentown	1	Michigan	79.1%	47.7%	27.3%	14.2%
Allentown	4	Colgate	20.9%	6.0%	1.6%	0.4%
Allentown	2	Penn State	54.5%	26.3%	12.9%	5.7%
Allentown	3	Michigan Tech	45.5%	20.0%	8.9%	3.5%
Bridgeport	1	Quinnipiac	70.7%	44.7%	25.7%	13.6%
Bridgeport	4	Merrimack	29.3%	12.2%	4.4%	1.4%
Bridgeport	2	Harvard	48.5%	20.5%	8.9%	3.5%
Bridgeport	3	Ohio State	51.5%	22.5%	10.1%	4.1%

Minnesota is the top overall seed and headlines a very Minnesota-heavy Fargo Regional at Fargo, N.D. The Gophers (26-9-1) dropped the Big Ten championship game at home to Michigan but still earned top billing. Minnesota plays Canisius in the first round. The Golden Griffins went 20-18-3 and are power rated No. 44 in the country but qualified by winning the Atlantic Hockey tournament.

The winner of Minnesota-Canisius gets the winner of St. Cloud State and Minnesota State, a pair of old WCHA foes. Those two teams check in at fifth and eighth, respectively, in KRACH.

The No. 2 overall seed is Quinnipiac, which stays close to home at the Bridgeport Regional at Bridgeport, Ct. The Bobcats are 30-4-3 but have just the 44th-ranked SOS according to KRACH. Quinnipiac will face Merrimack, which makes only its third NCAA tournament appearance since moving to the Division I ranks in 1984.

If the Bobcats survive the opener, they will draw the winner of No. 9 Ohio State and No. 11 Harvard.

No. 3 Michigan is the top seed in the Allentown Regional at Allentown, Pa. The Wolverines are 24-11-3 but surging as of late. Michigan features numerous NHL first-round picks plus Hobey Baker finalist Adam Fantilli, the likely No. 2 overall pick in the upcoming NHL draft after Canadian sensation Connor Bedard.

Michigan draws No. 31 Colgate in the opener, with the winner facing No. 7 Penn State or No. 10 Michigan Tech. Tech has now made five tournament appearances in the last nine seasons but hasn’t made it to the Frozen Four since 1981.

Defending national champion Denver is the No. 4 overall seed and leads the Manchester Regional at Manchester, N.H. The Pioneers are 30-9-0 on the season and face No. 16 Cornell. The winner gets either No. 6 Boston University or No. 12 Western Michigan.

Boston University has the highest Frozen Four odds of anyone outside the top overall seeds at 27.9%. The Terriers have a Hobey finalist of their own in freshman D Lane Hutson, a Montreal Canadiens draft choice.