The NFL finalized the 2023 schedule this week. While Vegas win totals had already been available, DraftKings put a line on every single game, from Week 1 through Week 18.
The release of lines for all 18 weeks allows us to establish a true pecking order by calculating a market-implied, Vegas-style power rating for all 32 NFL teams.
Last year at this time, even though the Kansas City Chiefs had been to two of the previous three Super Bowls, it was the Buffalo Bills that opened as the No. 1 team according to the market.
The Chiefs had lost in an upset to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the 2022 AFC Championship Game, and Kansas City had traded star receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami in the ensuing offseason, leaving the team with some ever-so-slight question marks.
But Patrick Mahomes & Co. erased all doubt in 2022. Mahomes won his second MVP, and the Chiefs came from behind to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, with Mahomes collecting another Super Bowl MVP award.
Meanwhile, the Bills stumbled ever so slightly, with Josh Allen looking a touch more erratic and mistake-prone sans the departed Brian Daboll and Buffalo eventually being upset by Burrow and the Bengals in the AFC Divisional Round.
Thus, it was no surprise that the release of lines confirmed what most already knew: the Chiefs will open the 2023 season as the clear-cut No. 1 from a market perspective.
Here’s how all 32 teams stack up:
The front-runner
1. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.9 vs. average NFL team on a neutral field)
The Chiefs are in a league of their own to start the season. The gap of 1.4 points between them and the No. 2-rated Buffalo Bills is the largest gap between any two consecutive spots in the rankings.
The challengers
2. Buffalo Bills (-4.5)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.0)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.6)
5. San Francisco 49ers (-3.0)
No surprises in this tier. That is, here are four teams that have combined for several Super Bowl appearances and deep playoff runs in recent years.
The biggest question mark probably belongs to the 49ers, who finally said adios to Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and could open with Sam Darnold at QB, while the still-unproven Trey Lance and injured Brock Purdy wait in the wings.
The hopefuls
6. New York Jets (-2.7)
T-7. Miami Dolphins (-2.6)
T-7. Dallas Cowboys (-2.6)
9. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.3)
10. Baltimore Ravens (-1.7)
The Jets leap 20 spots from last year’s offseason hierarchy, thanks to a budding young D that includes brash second-year corner Sauce Gardner, an explosive second-year runner in Breece Hall, and, of course, the arrival of Aaron Rodgers from Green Bay.
While the Jets are the obvious choice for “most to prove” in this tier, the four teams immediately behind them aren’t without doubts.
Miami looked every bit a Super Bowl contender last season when Tua Tagovailoa was throwing darts to blazers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Tagovailoa’s numerous concussions not only derailed the Dolphins’ season but raised questions about the QB’s NFL future. If he can’t hold up under center, all bets are off in Miami.
…It has now been 28 seasons since the Cowboys’ last Super Bowl win – or even the last time they made it out of the divisional round. Dallas’ 2022 campaign sputtered to an end with a measly offensive output in a 19-12 playoff loss at San Francisco. Dak Prescott’s cap hit is set to surge to nearly $60 million in 2024, so another underwhelming season in Big D will leave the ‘Boys with some difficult decisions to make on the future of Dak and head coach Mike McCarthy.
…In Los Angeles, the perpetually injury-riddled Chargers will be fighting to stay healthy and to erase the absolute stench of blowing a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars in the AFC playoffs last season. Brandon Staley’s seat is hot enough to melt all of the remaining glaciers in Greenland.
…In Baltimore, the Ravens finally re-upped Lamar Jackson after more than a year of infighting and bizarre behavior from the franchise QB, exacerbated by Jackson’s injuries and availability last season, as well as his decision to operate without an agent. Now, Jackson will try to silence the doubters by pursuing playoff success that has thus far eluded him. And he’ll try to do it with a rebuilt wide receiver corps, a position group that has completely bedeviled the Ravens for years now.
The up-and-comers
11. Detroit Lions (-1.1)
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.9)
Despite not making the playoffs last season or making a change at QB, the Lions make a massive leap expectations-wise, jumping 17 spots from No. 28 at this time last year. (It is atypical for a team to see such a shift in expectations without one of those two things.) That’s thanks to an offense that looked electric down the stretch last season behind the shrewd play-calling of OC Ben Johnson and surprising play of QB Jared Goff.
The offense has new toys in former Bears running back David Montgomery, shot-out-of-a-cannon rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and uber-athletic rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Detroit won’t have to wait long to make a splash as the Lions draw the Chiefs on opening night at Arrowhead Stadium.
…In Jacksonville, third-year QB Trevor Lawrence made a sophomore leap under the steady hand of Doug Pederson, who proved to be a stabilizing force after the toxic tenure of the overmatched Urban Meyer. Lawrence got his first playoff win and will be thinking division title in 2023.
The middle of the pack
13. Denver Broncos (-0.7)
14. Seattle Seahawks (-0.5)
15. Cleveland Browns (-0.4)
16. New England Patriots (-0.3)
17. Minnesota Vikings (-0.1)
18. Pittsburgh Steelers (+0.2)
19. New York Giants (+0.4)
This is the first tier for which it would be a stretch to call these teams Super Bowl contenders. Yet, what they mostly have in common is that they’re more settled at the quarterback position – at least for now – than the teams in the tier below them.
In Denver, one of the most fascinating storylines of the season will be the relationship between new Broncos head coach Sean Payton and embattled and aloof quarterback Russell Wilson. The track record of each offers the faint hope that Denver could surprise people in 2023, but it won’t be easy to do in a division that features Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
…In Seattle, the Seahawks rewarded Geno Smith with a new contract after his wildly successful and out-of-nowhere 2022 season, in which he was seventh in the NFL in EPA per play and completion percentage over expectation. Now Smith gets a new weapon in rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who could form a dangerous troika with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. With the Rams and Cardinals expected to be down, the Seahawks could be a factor in the NFC West race if San Fran can’t sort out its QB situation.
…In Cleveland, all Deshaun Watson did was return from his 11-game suspension and finish 32nd out of 37 QBs (minimum 200 snaps) in EPA per play and completion percentage above expectation, ahead of only Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Baker Mayfield. WOOF. The market isn’t all that bullish on a rebound either.
…In New England, Bill Belichick replaced co-offensive coordinators Matt Patricia (LOLLLLLL) and Joe Judge (LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL) with Bill O’Brien. Whatever. This is the fourth-best team in the AFC East unless Tua’s head explodes like a watermelon. No clue what Belichick is doing at this point.
…In Minnesota, the analytics geeks lost their minds last season as the Vikings went 13-4 despite a negative scoring differential. Minnesota eclipsed its Pythagorean expectation by a whopping 4.6 wins. The problem – besides the expected avalanche of regression, of course – is that Kirk Cousins is still the Vikings quarterback.
…In Pittsburgh, the major storyline in 2023 will be the development of second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett showed some moxie down the stretch, winning six of his last seven starts (albeit against middling competition) and posting league average-ish advanced passing stats in the second half of the season. How much of a ceiling Pickett ultimately has is an open debate, but the Steelers had to feel decent about the way he battled.
…In New York, the Giants went a surprise 9-7-1 in first-year head coach Daboll’s debut season, before getting annihilated in the playoffs by the Eagles. With a negative scoring differential, it was universally accepted that the Giants outperformed their talent level. Nonetheless, previously maligned quarterback Daniel Jones got a lucrative contract extension, and the Giants will try to take a step forward as they solidify the talent around Jones.
The below average
20. Las Vegas Raiders (+1.1)
21. New Orleans Saints (+1.3)
22. Green Bay Packers (+1.5)
23. Washington Commanders (+1.7)
24. Chicago Bears (+1.9)
25. Los Angeles Rams (+2.2)
26. Atlanta Falcons (+2.6)
27. Carolina Panthers (+2.8)
28. Tennessee Titans (+2.9)
This tier is littered with teams that have question marks at quarterback.
Las Vegas, arguably in dire need of a complete rebuild, decided to keep kicking the can down the road of mediocrity with the brittle Garoppolo.
…New Orleans has a shiny new toy in Derek Carr, but how much of an upgrade he’ll be over Andy Dalton is very much an open question, especially with coach Dennis Allen at the helm. Allen is, uh, definitely not the aforementioned Payton.
…After 30-plus years of the stability afforded by Rodgers and Brett Favre, Green Bay begins anew with Jordan Love at quarterback. If Love doesn’t show enough promise, expect the Packers to consider blowing it up and starting over.
…Washington has a roster that has come a long way in recent years, but exactly what is the Commanders’ ceiling with Jacoby Brissett and Sam Howell as the QB options? It feels like this team is stuck in purgatory, although at least the loathsome Dan Snyder has finally blown away like the Wicked Witch of the West.
…If there is one candidate in this tier to surprise, it could be Chicago just because of the upside that Justin Fields has flashed as he heads into a critical Year 3, although the rest of the roster remains a work in progress.
…The Rams are a roster in steep decline. No one denies this. The question is, Can Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald conjure up one more run? Without Jalen Ramsey or any depth to speak of, the task seems daunting.
…Who is Atlanta starting at quarterback? The middling sophomore Desmond Ridder? Good freakin’ luck. Go draft another skill position guy to waste away on this dreadful roster.
…Carolina drafted its franchise quarterback in Bryce Young, and the NFC South seems to be there for the taking, but we’ll see if that’s too tall of an order in Young’s rookie campaign.
…The market is very low on a Tennessee team that always seems to overachieve under Mike Vrabel, but Derrick Henry has a lot of miles on those tires, and Ryan Tannehill has shown he cannot carry a team by himself. If the Titans stumble out of the gates, expect fans to start clamoring for rookie QB Will Levis of Kentucky.
The bottom-feeders
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.1)
30. Indianapolis Colts (+4.2)
31. Houston Texans (+4.8)
32. Arizona Cardinals (+5.2)
The Colts and Texans drafted their franchise quarterbacks in Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, respectively, and will hope to take strides in their respective rebuilds this season.
But Indy’s and Houston’s cellar mates, Tampa Bay and Arizona, will very much have their eyes on USC signal-caller and Heisman winner Caleb Williams and North Carolina passer Drake Maye if the Buccaneers’ and Cardinals’ seasons go off the rails, as many anticipate.
