Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 3 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 5-2-0 ATS (71.4%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 1-2-0 ATS (33.3%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-1-0 ATS (50.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants (at SF) | +10.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Broncos (at MIA) | +6.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (at JAX) | +9.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Panthers (at SEA) | +5.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. TEN) | -3.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (at KC) | +12.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Saints (at GB) | +1.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. LAR) | -2.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Cardinals (vs. DAL) | +11.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Lions (vs. ATL) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Colts (at BAL) | +7.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Eagles (at TB) | -4.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Commanders (vs. BUF) | +6.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bills (at WAS) | -6.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jets (vs. NE) | +2.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Patriots (at NYJ) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Raiders (vs. PIT) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Steelers (at LV) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Vikings (vs. LAC) | -0.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at MIN) | +0.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at ARI) | -11.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at DET) | +3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. IND) | -7.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Buccaneers (vs. PHI) | +4.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Titans (at CLE) | +3.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (vs. CHI) | -12.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. NO) | -1.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Rams (at CIN) | +2.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (vs. CAR) | -5.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. HOU) | -9.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (vs. NYG) | -10.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. DEN) | -6.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 3 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 6-4 (60.0%)
- Rank: T-559 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Giants +10.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Browns -3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Colts +7.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +5.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Raiders -2.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
We fired early on the Giants on Thursday, thinking the number was a bit inflated but it turns out it wasn’t inflated enough as the 49ers pummeled the outmanned Giants. Bad call.
…Mike Vrabel has a well-earned reputation as being someone to back as an underdog, but is it possible we’re getting a deal on the Browns because of the Nick Chubb injury? The Browns have an elite, stifling D that should wreak havoc on a paper thin Titans offensive line. Jerome Ford popped off a long run after Chubb exited and should be fine thanks to the Browns’ solid offensive line and Kevin Stefanski’s run-friendly scheme.
…Gardner Minshew starts in place of Anthony Richardson for the Colts in Baltimore, but this game is really about the Baltimore injury report. The Ravens are riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball, especially on the offensive line and in the secondary, making this a huge number to cover.
…Andy Dalton gets the start in place of the injured Bryce Young this week, but Dalton actually represents a modest upgrade to Carolina’s power rating. Seattle’s battered offensive line held up against Detroit but will have a much more difficult time this week against Brian Burns & Co. The Panthers are an A-rated HIGBEE +3 this week.
…Backing Josh McDaniels is always a dicey proposition, but the Steelers’ offense is anemic and offensive coordinator Matt Canada needs to be launched into the sun. Kenny Pickett appeared to take a step forward in the second half of his rookie season, but it turned out to be mostly smoke and mirrors, aided by unsustainable third-down magic and a soft schedule. Expecting the Steelers to figure things out offensively on a short week with cross-country travel is wishful thinking. Give us the Raaaiiiduhs!
Week 4 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Detroit at Green Bay (-1) |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | ESPN+ | Atlanta vs. Jacksonville (-3) at London, UK |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Minnesota (-3) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams (-1) at Indianapolis |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington at Philadelphia (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Cincinnati (-1.5) at Tennessee |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami at Buffalo (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Denver (-2.5) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-1.5) at Cleveland |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh (-4) at Houston |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers (-4) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | New England at Dallas (-7.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Arizona at San Francisco (-14.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Kansas City (-7) at N.Y. Jets |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Seattle (-1) at N.Y. Giants |
