Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 4 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 6-5-0 ATS (54.3%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 2-4-0 ATS (33.3%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders (at PHI) | +7.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (at TEN) | +3.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (at IND) | +1.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (at LAC) | +5.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. KC) | +9.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. DET) | +1.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (at CLE) | +2.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Vikings (at CAR) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (vs. PIT) | +2.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. MIA) | -2.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. ARI) | -13.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. SEA) | -0.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. JAX) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. ATL) | -3.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (at CHI) | -3.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. DEN) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (at NO) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. TB) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at DAL) | +6.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. NE) | -6.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. BAL) | -2.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Panthers (vs. MIN) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (at HOU) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at BUF) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at SF) | +13.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at NYG) | +0.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (at GB) | -1.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Titans (vs. CIN) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (vs. LAR) | -1.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. LV) | -5.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (at NYJ) | -9.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. WAS) | -7.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 4 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 2-3
- YTD: 8-7 (53.3%)
- Rank: T-814 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Falcons +3.5: 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday
- Colts -1.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bills -2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chargers -5.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Patriots +6.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
Week 5 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Chicago at Washington (-5) |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | NFLN | Jacksonville vs. Buffalo (-4.5) at London, UK |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at Detroit (-7.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Houston at Atlanta (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Miami (-10) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee at Indianapolis (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New Orleans at New England (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-2) at Pittsburgh |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Cincinnati (-7) at Arizona |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Philadelphia (-6) at L.A. Rams |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Denver (-3) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-6) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Dallas as San Francisco (-3) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Green Bay (-1) at Las Vegas |
