Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 12 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 21-23-0 ATS (47.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 7-8-0 ATS (46.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders (at DAL) | +11.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. MIA) | +9.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. JAX) | +1.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (at ARI) | -0.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (vs. PIT) | +0.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Patriots (at NYG) | -3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (at IND) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (at ATL) | +0.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Chargers (vs. BAL) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Seahawks (vs. SF) | +7.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at LV) | -8.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (at PHI) | +3.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Lions (vs. GB) | -7.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Titans (vs. CAR) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (at DEN) | +2.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bears (at MIN) | +3.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Vikings (vs. CHI) | -3.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Packers (at DET) | +7.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Panthers (at TEN) | +3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. CLE) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at SEA) | -7.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Raiders (vs. KC) | +8.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. BUF) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Steelers (at CIN) | -0.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Giants (vs. NE) | +3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (vs. TB) | -2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. NO) | -0.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Ravens (at LAC) | -3.5 | -3 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Cowboys (vs. WAS) | -11.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Dolphins (at NYJ) | -9.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (at HOU) | -1.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. LAR) | +0.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 12 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 5-0
- YTD: 29-21 (58.0%)
- Rank: T-433 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Lions -7.5: 12:30 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Cowboys -11.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Bills +3.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chargers +3.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bears +3.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Packers are decimated by injuries, and that spells trouble on a short week. Green Bay is likely to be without three of QB Jordan Love’s top targets: tight end Luke Musgrave, wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks and running back Aaron Jones. On the other side of the ball, linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and cornerback Jaire Alexander are both game-time decisions. This game has moved through the secondary key of 8 out to 8.5 in the market. Let’s grab that CLV and look for the Lions to roll on Thanksgiving in Detroit.
…We hate laying double digits, especially in front of a national TV audience, but the Cowboys should be able to name their number against a Commanders D that just got carved up by Tommy DeVito. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys’ violent pass rush is bad news for sack- and turnover-prone Commies QB Sam Howell. This game is now out to 13.5 and may close at 14 or more. We’ll take the CLV with the favorite in a game in which pro bettors are smashing the over.
…The Bills-Eagles game pits the luckiest team in the NFL when comparing EPA per play to expected wins (Philly) against the unluckiest (Buffalo). Let’s grab the extra-valuable 3.5 points with Buffalo in a game that should close 3 or fewer.
…The Chargers are another luck model darling, as they’ve underperformed their win total by about 1.5 wins based on Pythagorean expectation and about 1.2 wins based on an EPA analysis. At this point, underperformance appears to be a feature rather than a bug for the Chargers organization, but let’s roll the dice one more time. Like the Buffalo-Philly game, LAC +3.5 is advantageous in a game that should close 3.
…Let’s stay on the luck model train, shall we? Chicago has underperformed its win total by both Pythagorean expectation and EPA, with both models suggesting the Bears should have 4-plus wins instead of their current 3. As with the Bills and Chargers, let’s grab 3.5 points in a game that will close 3.
Week 13 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Seattle at Dallas (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit (-3) at New Orleans |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta (-1.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Miami (-7) at Washington |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at New England |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Arizona at Pittsburgh (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis (-1) at Tennessee |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Denver at Houston (-3) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Carolina at Tampa Bay (-5.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | San Francisco at Philadelphia (-1.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Cleveland at L.A. Rams (-1) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Kansas City (-7) at Green Bay |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Cincinnati at Jacksonville (-7) |
