Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 13 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 22-31-0 ATS (41.5%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 8-11-0 ATS (42.1%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks (at DAL) | +8.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Eagles (vs. SF) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Commanders (vs. MIA) | +9.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at GB) | -5.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at TB) | +5.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Saints (vs. DET) | +4.5 | +2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (at JAX) | +8.5 | +2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (vs. CLE) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Titans (vs. IND) | +0.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. LAC) | +5.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Broncos (at HOU) | +3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (at PIT) | +5.5 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Falcons (at NYJ) | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jets (vs. ATL) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. ARI) | -5.5 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Chargers (at NE) | -5.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (vs. DEN) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (at TEN) | -0.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (at LAR) | +3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (at NO) | -4.5 | -2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. CIN) | -8.5 | -2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. CAR) | -5.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Packers (vs. KC) | +5.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (at WAS) | -9.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at PHI) | -2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. SEA) | -8.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
Week 13 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 32-23 (58.2%)
- Rank: T-417 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Saints +4.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cardinals +5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Texans -3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +5.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- 49ers -2.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
Both our market-implied power ratings and Jeff Sagarin’s ratings make the Lions-Saints game well short of a field goal. On top of that, this game represents one of the biggest luck disparities on the board this week. Detroit ranks as the fifth-luckiest team in both our Pythagorean luck model and EPA-based luck model, while New Orleans ranks in the bottom third of the league in both. Detroit is off a “mini bye” of sorts after playing last Thursday, but we still can’t justify this number.
…Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have long been a favorite of sharp bettors when Pittsburgh is in an underdog role. But the opposite is true when Pittsburgh and its anemic offense are asked to lay points, let alone almost a touchdown. The Steelers are the second-luckiest team in the NFL by Pythagorean expectation and third-luckiest when using EPA, while the Cardinals rank near the bottom of the league in both metrics. We’ll take the far more dynamic QB in Kyler Murray and the points, even if we are taking some negative CLV.
…The Broncos have enjoyed a +14 turnover margin during their surprising five-game winning streak, but their luck runs out here. C.J Stroud should have a field day against a Broncos D that ranks 32nd in DVOA, including 28th against the pass.
…Speaking of CLV, let’s grab a chunk of free points with Carolina and see what the Panthers offer up post-Frank Reich firing. Carolina was available as high as +6 this week, but the contest line of +5.5 is still solid value for a game that looks like it will close 3. Tampa put up a great fight to start the season but has won just once in the last two months.
…The Eagles are defending NFC champs and sport a shiny 10-1 record, but a look under the hood reveals some issues. Philly is the runaway luckiest team in the NFL by both Pythagorean expectation and EPA, with both models suggesting the Eagles are closer to a 7-4 team. Meanwhile, San Fran ranks in the bottom 10 in both luck metrics. The 49ers are coming off three days’ extra rest, while Philly worked overtime to hold off the Bills last Sunday afternoon. San Fran has revenge on its mind and has a great spot to carry it out against the exhausted Eagles.
Week 14 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | New England at Pittsburgh (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit (-4.5) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams at Baltimore (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at New Orleans (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis (-2) at Cincinnati |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville (-3) at Cleveland |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston (-4.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Minnesota (-1) at Las Vegas |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Seattle at San Francisco (-10.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Buffalo at Kansas City (-3) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Denver at L.A. Chargers (-3) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Philadelphia at Dallas (-2.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Tennessee at Miami (-12.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ABC | Green Bay (-5.5) at N.Y. Giants |
