Following the release of the 2021 NFL schedule, many sportsbooks posted Week 1 look-ahead lines. However, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas took it a step further and posted lines for all 18 weeks.
So we plugged the lines into Excel Solver to compute a Vegas-style power rating for each team, as well as an implied home-field advantage.
Without further ado, here is the initial set of power ratings for all 32 teams.
The contenders
1. Kansas City Chiefs (-6.6 vs. average NFL team on a neutral field)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
3. Buffalo Bills (-4.5)
4. Baltimore Ravens (-4.2)
5. Los Angeles Rams (-3.8)
6. San Francisco 49ers (-3.7)
7. Cleveland Browns (-3.2)
Kansas City, which has made two straight Super Bowls, is the NFL’s No. 1 team in the eyes of bookmakers, power rated at 6.6 points better than an average NFL team on a neutral field. Based on the power rating and strength of schedule, we project the Chiefs to win 13.4 games.
Defending Super Bowl champ Tampa Bay checks in one point behind the Chiefs, followed by AFC finalist Buffalo a point behind the Buccaneers. We have Tampa Bay at 12.8 wins and Buffalo at 12.0.
While the NFL’s overall approach to scheduling is to beef up the competition for the contenders while easing up on the bottom-feeders, it doesn’t always work out that way. The Buccaneers will face the projected 29th-toughest schedule in 2021, while the Bills get the NFL’s 30th-toughest.
Out of the NFL’s top 10 teams in terms of power rating, only the Rams will face a top-10 schedule, as the new Sean McVay–Matthew Stafford partnership draws the eighth-most difficult schedule. San Francisco, which flopped last season with a 6-10 mark, will get every chance in the world for a nice rebound thanks to the NFL’s 31st-ranked schedule.
Surprised to see Cleveland among the contenders? You shouldn’t be. According to PFF, the Browns have the NFL’s best offensive line, best stable of running backs and third-best group of defensive backs, not to mention a coach in Kevin Stefanski who is establishing himself as one of the NFL’s sharpest minds.
The next tier
8. Indianapolis Colts (-2.3)
9. Seattle Seahawks (-1.6)
10. New Orleans Saints (-1.3)
11. Arizona Cardinals (-1.1)
12. Green Bay Packers (-1.0)
Even if Aaron Rodgers and the Packers end their offseason feud and Rodgers shows up to camp, Green Bay is mediocre in the trenches on both sides of the ball, possesses a below-average group of wide receivers after the outstanding Davante Adams, and has PFF’s 32nd-ranked linebacker unit.
The Saints could be a fascinating team to watch, as the roster is really good outside of the questions that exist at quarterback. If the keys to the offense go to Jameis Winston, we know that Winston has all the physical tools to put up video game numbers, but can he limit the turnovers?
Kyler Murray didn’t make quite the leap some thought was possible as a sophomore, but he’s still really good and if he explodes to another level, the Cardinals could surprise some people in what figures to be a brutally competitive NFC West. Murray has the type of tantalizing upside you can dream on.
The middle of the pack
13. Dallas Cowboys (-0.9)
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (-0.7)
15. Tennessee Titans (-0.4)
16. Los Angeles Chargers (-0.3)
17. Minnesota Vikings (-0.2)
18. Miami Dolphins (+0.4)
19. New England Patriots (+0.4)
20. Denver Broncos (+0.6)
If Dak Prescott can return to form after last year’s horrific leg injury, the Cowboys should have an offense that looks like it was constructed by a 12-year old playing Madden NFL. Unfortunately, defense is kinda required in the real NFL and the Cowboys have bottom-five defensive line and defensive back units, which is a recipe for getting carved up in today’s league.
Pittsburgh went 12-4 last season and hasn’t had a losing record in 18 years, but the Steelers will have their hands full in 2021. The Steelers’ problems are pretty much the opposite of Dallas’. Pittsburgh should once again have a very formidable defensive unit, but the offense looks like it’s stuck in the mud and Big Ben isn’t getting any younger. Pittsburgh faces the NFL’s toughest schedule, and as such, we project the Steelers to go 8-9.
Denver has a very good roster everywhere except quarterback. The Broncos would be instant Super Bowl contenders if they were to acquire Rodgers, provided they mainly trade draft futures instead of core roster pieces.
The below average
21. Las Vegas Raiders (+1.6)
22. Atlanta Falcons (+1.7)
23. Washington Football Team (+2.0)
24. Chicago Bears (+2.2)
25. New York Giants (+2.3)
26. Carolina Panthers (+2.4)
All eyes in Chicago will be on the Bears’ plans for rookie QB Justin Fields. With the league’s fifth-toughest slate, do the Bears quickly install Fields as the starter knowing they’ll need the upside he offers? Or do they play it cautiously, not wanting to throw him to the wolves? In a scenario where Rodgers doesn’t return to Green Bay and Fields bursts onto the scene, the Bears could be a really intriguing dark horse in a pretty weak NFC North.
The bottom feeders
27. Philadelphia Eagles (+3.3)
28. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.6)
30. New York Jets (+4.1)
31. Detroit Lions (+5.8)
32. Houston Texans (+7.8)
Optimism will abound in Cincinnati as a healthy Joe Burrow returns after showing flashes of brilliance as a rookie before suffering a brutal leg injury. But the Bengals get a really difficult draw in the NFL’s third-toughest schedule.
The NFL scheduling gods did Dan Campbell & Co. no favors in Year 1, as Detroit will face the NFL’s fourth-toughest schedule, leaving the Lions with a projection of only 5.8 wins.
Contrast that with Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence, who will get a chance to ease into things as Jacksonville will face the NFL’s easiest schedule.
Speaking of Lawrence, there is a good chance that several of the teams in this tier will be picking at or near the top of the 2022 NFL Draft.
And while there’s no surefire Lawrence-type prize in the ’22 class, the QBs getting first-round consideration early include Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler, North Carolina’s Sam Howell and USC’s Kedon Slovis.
There are also a few QBs from unlikely places generating some first-round buzz, including Desmond Ridder of Cincinnati, Malik Willis of Liberty and Carson Strong of Nevada.
