[EDITOR’S NOTE 7/30: Might want to take to take a rain check on the Saints, what with wide receiver Michael Thomas likely to miss the first six games with injury, defensive tackle David Onyemata getting hit with a six-game suspension for a banned substance, and cornerback Marshon Lattimore facing possible discipline after his March arrest for possession of a stolen firearm.]
After a string of playoff disappointments and near misses the last four seasons, the Saints head into uncharted waters without longtime franchise quarterback Drew Brees.
Can the Saints re-tool on the fly and remain a Super Bowl contender, or will the 2021 season reveal even more cracks in the facade, necessitating a proper rebuild?
DVOA explanation
Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
DVOA analyzes every single play during the NFL season and compares the play to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down. For example, five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12.
Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.
Why the Saints are a sneaky Super Bowl contender
Here is how the Saints have finished in DVOA each of the last four seasons:
- 2020: 33.3% (1st)
- 2019: 32.7% (2nd)
- 2018: 25.2% (2nd)
- 2017: 35.0% (1st)
That’s right: Despite falling short of that elusive second Super Bowl trip that might have put a bow on Brees’ career, the Saints have been a top-two team in the NFL in each of the last four seasons.
And while the team no doubt faces questions after the retirement of the franchise face, the rest of the roster is in remarkably solid shape.
In addition to having a proven head coach in Sean Payton, the Saints possess top-10 position groups at running back (third), offensive line (fourth), defensive line (eighth) and linebacker (10th) according to PFF, so the foundation here is outstanding.
The roster is littered with players who are among the best in the NFL at their respective positions, including bookend tackles Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead, center Erik McCoy, running back Alvin Kamara, wide receiver Michael Thomas, pass rushers Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport, and linebacker Demario Davis.
In addition, the Saints play in an NFC South that should be up for grabs once again. Carolina is in the early stages of a rebuild, and Atlanta’s trade of star receiver Julio Jones indicates the Falcons are headed in that direction too, so two out of the Saints’ three division rivals should be non-factors.
What about the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, you say? While, for one thing, New Orleans won this division last season. And second, while Tampa has a loaded roster, Tom Brady will turn 44 on the eve of the 2021 season, so the Bucs are in unprecedented territory here. If Brady gets injured or this happens to be the year Father Time finally catches up to him, the Saints could suddenly have an obstacle-free path to the division title.
The quarterback conundrum
The only reason New Orleans is flying under the radar is because of Brees’ aforementioned retirement. Never the biggest guy to begin with, Brees’ arm was absolutely shot toward the end of his career. In a league where stretching the field and creating explosive plays are more important than ever, Brees had been reduced to a dink-and-dunk passer. In other words, his exit may not be the downgrade the market thinks.
Although Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill garnered substantial buzz as the heir apparent to Brees — and did go 3-1 as a starter in spot duty — he is a 31-year old with four career NFL TD passes who was a scattershot passer at BYU several moons ago, so it would be a surprise if he were the answer.
That leaves us with the enigmatic Jameis Winston, the No. 1 overall pick in 2015. Winston has a huge arm and can make all the throws and then some, but he was just 28-42 as a starter before wearing out his welcome in Tampa.
Famous Jameis was an interception, fumble and sack factory with the Buccaneers. And on top of that, his role in several off-the-field incidents during his career — starting with his time at Florida State and continuing into the NFL — call into question his character and decision making.
But if ever there was a coach who could refine Winston and get him to cut down on the mistakes, it has to be Payton. It’s possible Winston simply is what he was in Tampa, and the Saints will be forced to quickly move on.
The tools and upside remain enormous, and the Saints’ willingness to take a flier on Winston is an indicator they see the potential too. Now, after mostly watching from the sidelines last season in New Orleans, Winston has a chance to revitalize his career and set up a massive payday.
(In further defense of Winston, just look at the plight of the Florida State football program since Jameis left. He went 27-1 as a starter and led the Seminoles to a national championship. Since his departure, Florida State has gone 41-32, has been .500 or worse each of the last four seasons in the ACC, and has cycled through three head coaches.)
Time to roll the dice on Winston and the Saints
At the end of the day, the Saints roster, almost everywhere except QB, screams Super Bowl contender. However, even at that position, the Saints have a former 5,000-yard passer as a potential ace in the hole.
Right now, the Saints have just the 13th-best Super Bowl odds on FanDuel, sitting at 30-1, behind teams such as the Colts, Titans and Cowboys.
Top to bottom, New Orleans has a substantially better roster than all of them, and if Winston can both win the job and be even a modest success, the Saints could be set up to be the surprise of the 2021 NFL season.
With only the 19th-toughest schedule and Payton in command, we like the Saints’ chances.
The pick: New Orleans to win Super Bowl +3000; Jameis Winston to win NFL MVP +6000 (both available at FanDuel)
