College football’s bowl season once seemed like one of the highlights of the sporting calendar.
To a 12-year old growing up in the frozen Midwest, there was something captivating about the entire scene: the warm-weather locations, the colorfully painted fields, and the fun names of the games themselves.
Sure, you had the Rose, Sugar, Orange and Fiesta. But you also had the California Raisin, Copper, Freedom, Aloha, Hall of Fame and even Blockbuster.
The bowl games featured the top 40 or so programs in America and were a reward for winning at least 8 or 9 games. The bowls did a great job of pitting schools from different regions of the country against each other, creating compelling matchups and interesting storylines. And perhaps most important, all the best players in college football played.
But many of those things have gone by the wayside.
More than 80 FBS teams now make the postseason, including wretched Power 5 teams like 5-7 Minnesota and middling teams from the lower rungs of the sport like 6-6 Georgia Southern.
Many of the fun names have been replaced by boring or inane names. Gone are the Aloha, Copper and Cherry bowls, replaced by the Hawai’i, Arizona and Quick Lane bowls. (I mean, who the hell is in charge of marketing these games?)
Newer games like the Boca Raton, New Mexico, Guaranteed Rate, Famous Toastery and 68 Ventures bowls leave plenty to be desired, not the least of which is even a morsel of prestige.
The warm-weather locations have been interspersed with games in front of mostly empty stadiums in miserable, cold-weather locations like the Fenway and Pinstripe bowls in Boston and New York, respectively.
On top of all that, the BCS and then CFP have relegated most of the non-playoff games to also-ran status. The transfer portal and opt-outs have only exacerbated the problem. This year alone, the top two quarterback prospects for the NFL draft, USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye, have opted out.
Nonetheless, bowl pick ’em pools are still very much a thing, perhaps one of the last remaining vestiges of fun in this sad, sordid mess.
This season, our approach combines simple analytics and game theory to create a competitive bowl pick ’em pool entry without prior knowledge of the teams.
We utilize the Vegas money line to calculate the implied win probability for each game and compare it with ESPN’s data on fan selections.
The difference between a team’s likelihood of winning and its popularity among fans highlights potential value. This metric guides us in prioritizing picks based on this edge.
Without further ado:
A few takeaways:
- Virginia Tech checks in as the top value. The Hokies are -320 on the money line, implying a 73% vig-free chance of winning. Yet bowl pickers are only choosing them 20% of the time, creating a model-best 53% edge. We are guessing that the Hokies’ uninspiring 6-6 record here is the culprit, as Tulane comes in with an 11-2 record, and fans remember the Green Wave’s highly entertaining and competitive loss to USC in last year’s Cotton Bowl.
- Georgia Southern and Ohio kick off bowl season today at 11 a.m. today. Georgia Southern rates as our third-best value on the entire bowl slate. The Eagles are a small favorite in Vegas, despite the masses overwhelmingly choosing the Bobcats. It will be a great initial litmus test for our model.
- Old Dominion faces Western Kentucky on Monday afternoon in the Famous Toastery Bowl. The Monarchs come in at No. 2 in terms of best values, with a 45% edge. Maybe fans think Bailey Zappe still plays QB for the Hilltoppers.
- Speaking of quarterbacks, many fans appear to be unaware that the aforementioned Maye will skip the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Almost 70% of fans are picking the Tar Heels, while the market has the Mountaineers as nearly a touchdown favorite, making West Virginia an excellent value.
- Rutgers appears to be another great value. It is no surprise that fans are picking the Miami Hurricanes. From a simple brand recognition standpoint, “The U” dwarves the Scarlet Knights, who are something of a punchline with fans nationally. But Rutgers is no punchline in this exercise. Vegas makes this game nearly a coin flip, yet only 16% of fans are picking Rutgers, making the Scarlet Knights the eighth-best overall value.
- Neither of the CFP games reveal a significant edge. Michigan and Alabama are a near pick ’em in the Rose Bowl, and fans are selecting them about 50-50. Michigan’s 4% edge ranks only 39th.
- In the Sugar Bowl, Texas has a 63% implied probability and is being picked 55% of the time, showing a modest edge for the Longhorns.
