Posted inCollege Basketball

Forecasting each round of the NCAA tournament with Log5

March 13, 2023

Let’s take a shot at forecasting the probabilities for teams to reach various rounds of the 2023 NCAA tournament.

Log5 is a method of estimating the probability that team A will win a game against team B, based on the odds ratio between the estimated winning probability of Team A and Team B against a larger set of teams.

We got the idea from the popular college hoops blog Kenpom, which posts one every year. You can read more about the Log5 method on Wikipedia.

Applying the Log5 formula to a specific matchup is straightforward, but forecasting an entire tournament is more daunting. Despite our best digging, we could not find a site anywhere on the internet that explained how to do this, so we built our own model in Excel.

Of course, in order to make Log5 work, we need to assign a rating for each team in the tournament as a starting point. For this exercise, we used Bart Torvik’s power ratings.

Here is our Log5 forecast for the 2023 NCAA tournament:

SeedTeamSecond RoundSweet 16Elite EightFinal FourFinalChamp
MW1Houston95.6%75.0%62.0%44.2%28.3%18.0%
S1Alabama97.3%72.7%52.0%35.9%23.8%14.1%
W2UCLA94.9%71.3%45.2%27.0%15.1%8.6%
E1Purdue98.0%65.2%37.4%25.3%13.5%6.9%
E4Tennessee85.3%61.3%34.9%24.0%13.1%6.8%
W4Connecticut81.8%50.0%31.8%17.6%9.5%5.2%
MW2Texas87.4%56.6%37.4%18.4%9.3%4.7%
W3Gonzaga89.0%62.4%32.2%17.4%8.7%4.4%
S2Arizona87.1%59.0%34.9%16.4%8.8%4.1%
S5San Diego State78.1%56.6%24.7%14.0%7.5%3.4%
E2Marquette82.0%53.3%33.6%15.1%6.6%2.8%
W5St. Mary's76.1%38.7%22.6%11.4%5.5%2.7%
W1Kansas94.0%57.5%26.7%12.3%5.5%2.5%
S3Baylor85.6%48.2%25.0%10.3%4.9%2.0%
S6Creighton68.4%37.3%19.1%7.8%3.7%1.5%
MW7Texas A&M64.9%29.4%16.6%6.7%2.7%1.1%
MW3Xavier81.8%45.2%19.6%7.3%2.8%1.0%
E3Kansas State76.8%44.3%22.1%8.2%3.0%1.0%
MW6Iowa State70.2%39.7%17.5%6.7%2.5%1.0%
E8Memphis59.7%22.7%10.2%5.6%2.3%0.9%
W8Arkansas64.4%30.1%12.2%4.9%1.9%0.8%
E5Duke68.5%26.5%10.5%5.5%2.1%0.7%
S9West Virginia57.3%16.8%8.5%3.9%1.7%0.6%
MW9Auburn59.7%16.1%9.7%4.4%1.6%0.6%
S10Utah State63.8%26.9%12.4%4.3%1.7%0.6%
E6Kentucky61.2%32.4%15.1%5.2%1.7%0.5%
W6TCU64.9%25.5%9.3%3.6%1.3%0.4%
E7Michigan State55.5%24.3%12.3%4.1%1.3%0.4%
MW4Indiana64.3%35.0%9.4%3.7%1.1%0.4%
S4Virginia70.2%27.3%7.6%2.9%1.0%0.3%
W10Boise State51.9%14.9%5.7%2.0%0.6%0.2%
S8Maryland42.7%10.3%4.5%1.8%0.7%0.2%
MW5Miami FL52.2%27.0%6.6%2.4%0.7%0.2%
E9Florida Atlantic40.3%12.0%4.3%2.0%0.6%0.2%
E10USC44.5%17.2%7.8%2.2%0.6%0.2%
W7Northwestern48.1%13.1%4.8%1.6%0.5%0.1%
MW12Drake47.8%23.8%5.5%1.9%0.5%0.1%
MW8Iowa40.3%8.3%4.2%1.5%0.4%0.1%
MW10Penn State35.1%11.3%4.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%
E11Providence38.8%16.5%5.9%1.5%0.4%0.1%
S11NC State31.6%11.8%3.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%
W9Illinois35.6%11.9%3.3%0.9%0.3%0.1%
S7Missouri36.2%11.0%3.6%0.9%0.2%0.1%
W11Arizona State / Nevada35.1%9.5%2.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%
W12VCU23.9%6.2%2.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
MW11Mississippi State / Pitt29.8%11.0%2.8%0.6%0.1%0.0%
MW13Kent State35.7%14.2%2.5%0.7%0.1%0.0%
E12Oral Roberts31.5%7.5%1.8%0.6%0.1%0.0%
S12Charleston21.9%9.5%1.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%
W13Iona18.2%5.0%1.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%
E13Louisiana14.7%4.7%0.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%
S13Furman29.8%6.6%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
E14Montana State23.2%6.9%1.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%
E15Vermont18.0%5.2%1.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%
MW15Colgate12.6%2.7%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
S15Princeton12.9%3.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
MW14Kennesaw State18.2%4.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
S14UC Santa Barbara14.4%2.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
W14Grand Canyon11.0%2.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MW16Northern Kentucky4.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
W15UNC Asheville5.1%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
W16Howard6.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
S16Texas A&M CC / SE Mo. State2.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
E16Texas So. / Fairleigh-Dickinson2.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
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Last updated on March 13, 2023