The NFL released its full 2022 schedule this week. Although Vegas win totals were already available, DraftKings put a line on (most) games from Week 1 through Week 18.
The above inclusion of the word most relates to the uncertainty around the status of new Browns franchise QB Deshaun Watson.
Watson, of course, could be facing a lengthy suspension pending the conclusion of the NFL’s investigation into the string of sexual assault lawsuits Watson faces.
For that reason, the only Browns game for which DraftKings has posted a line is Cleveland’s Week 1 trip to Carolina, where the Browns are listed as 4-point favorites.
Nonetheless, the release of these lines gives us an early window into how the market prices each NFL team coming out of free agency and the draft.
The front-runners
1. Buffalo Bills (-5.2 vs. average NFL team on a neutral field)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (-4.6)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.3)
4. Los Angeles Rams (-4.1)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (-3.8)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0)
Buffalo lost a heartbreaker to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisonal round, but the market has no shortage of love for the Bills, as they enter the season as top dog.
…The Bills are followed closely by the last three Super Bowl winners — the Chiefs, the Buccaneers and the defending champion Rams.
…The Chargers, despite a stunning loss to the Raiders in Week 18 that left them out of the playoffs, open at No. 5, thanks to the golden arm of young franchise QB Justin Herbert.
…Super Bowl runner-up Cincinnati opens at No. 6. The Bengals were 28th to start the 2021 season but made a rapid ascent led by the frightening Joe Burrow-to-Ja’Marr Chase connection.
The next tier
7. Green Bay Packers (-2.6)
8. Denver Broncos (-2.6)
9. San Francisco 49ers (-2.2)
10. Baltimore Ravens (-2.1)
11. Indianapolis Colts (-1.4)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (-1.3)
13. Dallas Cowboys (-1.2)
14. Cleveland Browns (-1.2)
After more than a year of nonstop Aaron Rodgers drama, here we are right back in the same spot: the Packers open the season slightly disrespected by the market, with Rodgers still at the helm.
Green Bay has gone 39-10 the last three seasons despite the underlying numbers suggesting the team should have won about eight fewer games. Nonetheless, each season has ended in playoff disappointment, with the Packers’ last two exits coming at Lambeau Field.
With franchise wide receiver Davante Adams off to Las Vegas and productive No. 2 option Marquez Valdes-Scantling now in Kansas City, it will be fascinating to see how the Packers replace that production in their quest to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 12 years.
…This tier features several teams with shiny new toys at quarterback, including Russell Wilson in Denver, Matt Ryan in Indy and the aforementioned Watson in Cleveland. Suffice it to say that with Watson in the lineup, the Browns’ market number will be adjusted by several points, vaulting them into the top tier.
The middle of the pack
15. Tennessee Titans (-0.6)
16. Miami Dolphins (-0.4)
17. Philadelphia Eagles (-0.1)
18. Arizona Cardinals (PK)
19. New England Patriots (+0.1)
20. Minnesota Vikings (+0.4)
21. New Orleans Saints (+0.8)
The Titans have pushed their chips to the center of the table and are all-in on a ground-and-pound attack built around bruiser Derrick Henry, especially after trading young star WR A.J. Brown to Philly on draft night.
The question, of course, is how much tread Henry has left on the tire. Henry missed nine games last season with a fractured foot, and although he was able to return for the playoffs, he ran for more than a yard less per carry than he had in his dominant 2,000-yard season in 2020.
If Henry fades and QB Ryan Tannehill remains unable to get over the hump in the playoffs, the Titans could decide to blow the entire offense up and start over.
…All eyes in Miami will be on third-year QB Tua Tagovailoa after the Dolphins went out and paid a king’s ransom for Tyreek Hill to play alongside young burner Jaylen Waddle. If Tua can’t take a step forward this season, the Dolphins could quickly decide to explore their options at QB yet again, as they seek stability at the position for the first time since Dan Marino retired.
…This feels like a pivotal season for both Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray in Arizona. Murray’s talent is undeniable, but his performance flagged in the second half of last season, and late-season swoons have become a hallmark of Kingsbury’s teams, dating back to his time at Texas Tech.
The below average
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.4)
23. Washington Commanders (+1.8)
24. Seattle Seahawks (+3.0)
25. Carolina Panthers (+3.1)
26. New York Jets (+3.4)
The newly branded Commanders are a team to watch in this group. They already had a ton of young chess pieces on defense. On offense, Carson Wentz steps in and should provide stability. Although Wentz is a polarizing QB, make no mistake, he is an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke, a nice underdog story who unfortunately had a very low ceiling. Wentz has plenty of young weapons to work with in RB Antonio Gibson and WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
The bottom-feeders
27. New York Giants (+3.7)
T-28. Chicago Bears (+3.9)
T-28. Detroit Lions (+3.9)
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.2)
31. Atlanta Falcons (+5.1)
32. Houston Texans (+5.7)
Trevor Lawrence was a huge disappointment last season in Jacksonville, but you have to wonder how much Urban Meyer’s toxic culture held him back.
…Several teams in the this tier — including the Giants, Detroit, Atlanta and Houston — will absolutely be in the market for a QB in the 2023 draft, in which the two prizes appear to be Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. If these teams are well out of the playoff race heading into December like most expect, jockeying for draft position could become a huge story line.
