The NFL’s first-ever Super Wild Card Weekend is filled with storylines.
The Buffalo Bills host their first playoff game in 25 years, even welcoming some fans back after playing in an empty stadium all season.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, after Wednesday’s surreal riot at the U.S. Capitol, head to the Beltway to face the nickname-less Washington Football Team and its swarming young defense.
And in New Orleans, the much-maligned Mitch Trubisky, aka Maserati Mitch, will try to lead the Bears to a shocking upset of the heavily favored Saints in the Superdome.
But for the best game of the weekend, we go to the Music City!
Baltimore (-3.5) at Tennessee, 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday
By now you know the narratives: Lamar Jackson is a choke artist and the Titans have Baltimore’s number. Tennessee upset MVP Jackson and the 14-2 Ravens by a 28-12 score in last season’s AFC Divisional Round.
In what could have been a Ravens revenge spot in Week 11 this season, Baltimore blew a 21-10 second-half lead and fell 30-24 to the Titans in OT. Derrick Henry sealed that game by commandeering his bulldozer 29 yards to the end zone, leaving a trail of twisted Ravens wreckage in his wake.
Both teams have 11-5 records, Tennessee has dispatched the Ravens in the last two meetings, and the Titans are at home and getting 3.5 points. So you should hurry to the window with a Titans ticket, right? We don’t think so.
Are the Titans overrated?
First of all, Tennessee is overrated. Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula that estimates how many games a team should have won based on its point differential. The Titans’ Pythagorean expectation this year was 9.2 wins, only 12th in the NFL. And that was against the NFL’s 26th-toughest schedule.
During the Titans’ 5-0 start, Tennessee held a yards-per-play advantage over its opponent just once — during an OT win over Houston in Week 5. The Titans were 7-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points and enjoyed the NFL’s No. 1 turnover margin at +11. Both of those stats tend to regress to the mean, indicating the Titans’ good fortune could run out at any time.
While Tennessee had the NFL’s fourth-best offensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders, the Titans were just 29th on defense and 28th in special teams. In overall DVOA, Tennessee was 14th — a middle-of-the-pack team. The Titans went just 8-6-2 in the yards-per-play battle with their opposition this season and gave up more than 6.0 yards per play on eight occasions.
Are the Ravens flying under the radar?
Baltimore, even at 11-5, slightly underperformed its Pythagorean expectation of 11.8 wins. Although the Ravens only played the 29th-toughest schedule, they mostly dominated the slate, winning the yards-per-play battle 11 times and giving up more than 6.0 yards per play on only three occasions.
In Week 12, a Ravens squad decimated by COVID-19 — and without Jackson at QB — played the division rival Steelers tough in a 19-14 loss. Since then, Baltimore has been lights-out, regaining its 2019 form in stampeding to a 5-0 finish.
Baltimore is seventh in overall DVOA, and while the Ravens were unable to match last year’s historic rushing output, they still finished 11th in offensive DVOA and fourth in rushing success rate. From Week 10 onward, the Ravens have been first in rushing success rate and third in rushing explosiveness, per sharpfootballstats.com. If that’s not enough, Baltimore ranks No. 1 in the NFL in special teams DVOA.
When the Titans have the ball
Tennessee was second in rushing success rate during the 2020 season and has 2,000-yard rusher Henry to plow downhill at the Ravens. Henry had 195 yards on the 30 carries in last season’s playoff upset.
In this season’s Week 11 rematch, Baltimore played without its best two run-stoppers in Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams but held Henry to a modest 3.9 yards per carry — until Henry’s 29-yard OT scamper. Baltimore has a very formidable rush D, ranking sixth against rushing success in 2020.
Although the Titans prefer to run the ball, especially when they have a lead, QB Ryan Tannehill is more than capable of slinging it. He’s 18-8 since taking over as the Tennessee starter midway through 2019, tossing 55 interceptions against just 13 interceptions.
When Tannehill is forced to go to the air, he’ll be up against a Ravens D that ranks 10th against passing success rate and No. 1 in the NFL at defending passing explosiveness, thanks to elite corners Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, who will look to keep the explosive Titans receiver A.J. Brown in check.
When the Ravens have the ball
One of the keys to the Ravens’ rejuvenated ground game has been the emergence of running back J.K. Dobbins, a rookie from Ohio State. Dobbins had just 25 total carries over the first six games. After Baltimore’s Week 7 bye, Dobbins was unleashed, carrying the ball 11 or more times in eight of the Ravens’ last nine games. Dobbins is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and has scored in each of the last six games.
The Titans rank just 21st defending rushing success rate, meaning the Ravens should have no problems keeping their rushing attack rolling. Although Jackson was subpar through the air this year — Baltimore ranked 26th in passing success rate — he should find plenty of opportunities against a Titans D that ranks 31st defending passing success rate.
The bottom line
In spite of being upset in the playoffs last year, Baltimore still outgained Tennessee 530-300 in that game. And, yes, the Titans did beat the Ravens again this year. But right now, the Ravens are a more complete team, one that’s in better current form and one that’s better-equipped to have an answer for the things the Titans do well than vice versa.
While Tennessee’s offense may have a slight statistical edge on Baltimore’s, the Ravens have a significant edge on D and a massive edge on special teams, highlighted by having the best kicker in NFL history in Justin Tucker. The Ravens should move the ball at absolute will against Tennessee, and that will help the Ravens finally avenge last season’s stunner and give Jackson his much-needed first playoff win.
- The Pick: Ravens -3.5
The Titans were your typical play with the lead team. If they were fortunate enough to grab an early lead, they rammed the human wrecking ball down your throat until you tapped out. However, if you were able to jump on them early, just like the Packers showed at the end of the season, they stood no chance.