NFL Week 1: Contest picks, analysis and look-ahead lines

Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.

In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL betting model (more on that next week) as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.

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Week 1 Bet the Board Contest Lines

Week 1 Bet the Board Contest Picks

Saints (+4.5) vs. Packers (at Jacksonville, FL)

New Orleans hosted Green Bay in Week 3 last season, a game in which the Saints closed -3.5 and the Packers prevailed 37-30. Fast-forward to 2021 and these two teams will meet in Jacksonville, thanks to the Saints being displaced by Hurricane Ida.

If this game were at the Superdome, we could reasonably expect the line to be Packers -2, which means bookmakers are telling us Green Bay is about 5.5 points better than when these two teams faced off last season. We ain’t buying it.

Our market-implied power ratings had these teams as near equals, and Football Outsiders projects very similar 2021 DVOAs for them. Even with Michael Thomas out, there simply isn’t this much of a gap between Drew Brees and Jameis Winston, especially considering Brees’ arm was a wet spaghetti noodle last season.

Sean Payton is an NFL-best 43-22-2 ATS (66.2%) as an underdog, and if you’re giving us not only the key number of 3 but the secondary key of 4, we’re taking it.

Vikings (-3.5) at Bengals

A couple weeks ago, we highlighted all the reasons we expect the Vikings to have a major bounce-back season and possibly even be a dark horse Super Bowl contender in 2021. Mike Zimmer has covered 60% of games during his seven seasons in Minnesota and is a particularly stout 5-2 in season openers.

While Joe Burrow showed flashes of stardom in his NFL debut last season, his season ended with a nasty leg injury and it may take him some time to re-adjust to game speed. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor had a thin resume when he was hired — thank you, Sean McVay! — and could quickly find himself on the hot seat if things go south this year.

This game represents one of the largest Week 1 coaching mismatches, so we’ll back the Vikings in this spot, even if we had hoped to be able to get them -3.

Falcons (-2.5) vs. Eagles

Jalen Hurts is a run-first quarterback who completed just 52% of his passes last season after taking over for Carson Wentz. Now he goes on the road in Week 1 with rookie coach Nick Sirianni to face what should be a much-improved Falcons team.

Despite going 4-12 last season, Atlanta’s scoring differential was more in line with an 8-8 team, and that was in spite of playing the NFL’s most difficult schedule.

After overmatched head coach Dan Quinn was mercifully shown the door, the Falcons brought in Titans offensive savant Arthur Smith to pick up the pieces. Quinn was such an atrocious game manager that it’s easy to envision Smith being an immediate upgrade.

With Matt Ryan still in his prime and laying less than a field goal at home against a team with major question marks at quarterback and head coach, we are happy to back the Dirty Birds in this spot.

Washington (-1.5) vs. Chargers

Justin Herbert looks like a franchise QB on the way to superstardom, but the Chargers still have lot of question marks, including new head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.

Staley was a defensive coordinator at NCAA D3 John Carroll just five years ago. Lombardi last ran an offense from 2014-15 with the Lions, turning in the NFL’s 19th and 13th best offenses by DVOA with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate in their primes, so we need to see what this looks like.

The Chargers had PFF’s worst-rated offensive line in 2020 and even though it should be much improved this season, the line will get tested here against Washington’s extremely disruptive pass rush.

Washington coach Ron Rivera is 43-32-2 ATS (57.3%) as an underdog, and in this spot he gets a Chargers team traveling across the country for an early start with a rookie head coach. Washington’s offense should be less of a hindrance to the team this year with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.

Browns (+6.5) at Chiefs

Taking less than a touchdown against Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium seems like a foolish proposition, but there is a lot to like about this Browns team, which possesses the deepest roster and most competent leadership seen in Northeast Ohio since the Bernie Kosar-led teams of the ’80s.

Cleveland has the NFL’s No. 1-rated offensive line per PFF and also holds significant edges over the Chiefs on the defensive line and in the secondary. But perhaps the biggest reason to back the Browns is the development of Baker Mayfield, who blossomed under coach Kevin Stefanski and was PFF’s second-highest-rated passer from Week 7 through the playoffs.

In this situation, we also benefit from what now looks like a stale line, as many shops now have the Browns +5 as of Sunday morning. With 6 being a secondary key and the Browns stacking up as legitimate Super Bowl contender, Cleveland is the play in this spot.

Week 2 Look Ahead Lines