NFL Week 1: Contest picks, analysis and look-ahead lines

Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.

Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.

Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.

We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2022 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction. In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).

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Week 1 Bet the Board Contest Lines

Week 1 Bet the Board Contest Picks

This week’s picks:

1. Eagles -3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
2. Jets +7.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
3. Bears +7.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
4. Vikings +1.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
5. Chiefs -5.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday

We will keep it simple and grab some stale lines in Week 1, starting with the Eagles.

The Lions had a spirited finish to the 2021 season, drafted pass rushing mauler Aidan Hutchinson No. 2 overall, grabbed Alabama burner Jameson Williams a few picks later, then enjoyed the spotlight on HBO’s Hard Knocks this summer. Needless to say, it is “stock arrow up” in Detroit this season.

But let’s tap the brakes here in Week 1. The Lions have some injury questions on the offensive line that could hold the offense back, and while Detroit’s defense hopes to be improved, seeing that maturation might take awhile. Philly has surged out to -5 in betting markets, meaning pros think Jalen Hurts & Co. could have their way with the Lions D today.

…Baltimore was absolutely gutted by injuries in 2021, and while the Ravens appear to be healthier heading into 2022, there are still questions. Franchise left tackle Ronnie Stanley will miss this game. Corner Marcus Peters is questionable. And the RB room is iffy, with Gus Edwards out until at least Week 5 and J.K. Dobbins listed as questionable. This line has moved through the ever-important key of 7, signaling some sharp action on the Jets, so let’s back Joe Flacco against his former mates.

…Chicago has one of the weaker rosters in the league, and you almost feel for Justin Fields and his decided lack of weapons. In spite of the situation around him, Fields showed promise late in his rookie season and will be an intriguing QB to watch in 2022.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is loaded and is a Super Bowl contender by almost any measure. However, star tight end George Kittle is out and second-year QB Trey Lance is still somewhat of an unknown. This line has moved across the key of 7 so we’ll grab the Monsters of the Midway here and hope Fields can flash some of that elite athleticism in Week 1.

…Minnesota will be a fascinating team to watch early in 2022. Had you eliminated the last two minutes of each half last season, the Vikings would have gone 15-2. Instead, they went 8-9, thanks to (fired coach) Mike Zimmer’s conservatism and QB Kirk Cousins’ penchant for wilting in big moments. With offensive-minded coach Kevin O’Connell now in town, there is at least some buzz around the idea of the Vikings as a sneaky contender this season.

Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defense should improve in 2022, but the Packers have some questions on offense, namely around the wide receiver room and the health of the offensive line. Davante Adams bolted for Vegas, Marquez Valdes-Scantling jumped to Kansas City, and Allen Lazard looks like he will miss Week 1. Minnesota has one of the best and last remaining home-field advantages in the NFL and live markets now reflect the Vikings as a small favorite here.

…The final stale line we’ll take is the Chiefs out in the desert against the Cardinals. Even before you factor in injuries, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have elite track records in Week 1 and with extra time to prepare. Once you factor in the aforementioned injuries — which plague Arizona on both sides of the ball — the Cardinals could be facing problems galore in this spot. The Chiefs are the bet here.

Week 2 Look Ahead Lines