NFL Week 1: Contest picks, analysis and look-ahead lines

Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.

During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.

This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.

Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.

We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.

In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).

Week 1 DraftKings Main Event Lines

Week 1 DraftKings Main Event Picks

This week’s picks:

1. Lions +6.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
2. Steelers +2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
3. Browns +2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
4. Texans +10.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
5. Rams +6.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday

Let’s keep it simple in Week 1 and pick off some stale contest lines. Using market priors, the craziest line move here goes to the Rams. We would have made Los Angeles about a 5.5-point favorite at Seattle at the start of last season using our market-implied power ratings. So this is a massive 12-point swing. Even with Cooper Kupp out and Jalen Ramsey long gone, the Rams figure to be about as cheap as you can get.

Week 2 Look Ahead Lines