Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 10 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 24-14-0 ATS (63.2%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 15-8-0 ATS (65.2%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 6-3-0 ATS (66.7%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers (at ARI) | +10.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Eagles (at DEN) | +2.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (at TEN) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Packers (at SEA) | -3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at IND) | +10.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Dolphins (at BAL) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Patriots (at CLE) | -1.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at ATL) | -9.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jets (at BUF) | +11.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Football Team (at TB) | +9.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Chargers (at MIN) | -2.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. LAR) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (at PIT) | +8.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. DET) | -8.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at LV) | -2.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. KC) | +2.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. MIA) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (vs. NE) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. DAL) | +9.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Bills (vs. NYJ) | -11.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. WAS) | -9.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Vikings (vs. LAC) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Rams (at SF) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (vs. JAX) | -10.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Titans (vs. NO) | -2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Seahawks (vs. GB) | +3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. PHI) | -2.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. CAR) | -10.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 10 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 5-0
- YTD: 25-20 (55.6%)
This week’s picks:
- Ravens -7.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Saints +2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +10.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Eagles +2.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chiefs -2.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
The lines for prime-time games are usually shaded toward the dog, as evidenced by underdogs’ 19-8 ATS record on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights so far this season. But we’re happy to go a bit contrarian this week. Our weighted, market-implied power ratings make this closer to Ravens -10 — Miami just closed +15 at Buffalo two weeks ago, after all.
…We’re now 6-0 when picking or picking against the Saints this season, so why not go back to the well? New Orleans is eighth in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA, buoyed by the NFL’s No. 3-rated defense. Even with the uncertainty at the QB position, the Saints’ floor on offense is pretty high because the offensive line is elite. The Titans, despite the 7-2 record and wins over the Bills, Chiefs and Rams, are an enigma. Tennessee is 14th in DVOA and on a play-to-play basis has played more like a team with 4.6 wins.
…Using our preseason, market-implied power ratings, we would have made Carolina a 5.5-point underdog out in the desert against the Cardinals — and that’s with Kyler Murray. Since Murray is unlikely to play, this line is really overinflated. With the Cardinals 7-2 ATS on the season and seemingly unable to do anything wrong, we will be on the lookout for some spots to fade them in the second half of the season and this feels like a good place to start. The Panthers are our best value of the week at +5 in the HIGBEE model.
…The Eagles, at +4 in the HIGBEE model, are our second-best value of the week. The Broncos looked great in Dallas last week, but Philly still sits a couple spots higher than Denver in DVOA. With both of these defenses ranking in the bottom-third of the NFL, look for some potential fireworks at Mile High.
…When the Chiefs and Raiders met in Vegas in Week 11 last season, Kansas City closed -7.5 Furthermore, using our preseason, market-implied power ratings, we would have made this about KC -6.5. So laying under a field goal feels like a gift, even if the Chiefs have looked somewhat listless for the better part of the 2021 season.
Week 11 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | New England (-4) at Atlanta |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at Cleveland (-10) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis at Buffalo (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at Tennessee (-10.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington at Carolina (-2) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-6) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | San Francisco (-5.5) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-2) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami (-2.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans (pk) at Philadelphia |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Cincinnati (pk) at Las Vegas |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Dallas at Kansas City (-2.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Arizona at Seattle (-1) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers (-3.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay (-12.5) |
