Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 11 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 28-14-0 ATS (66.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 17-8-0 ATS (68.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 7-3-0 ATS (70.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers (vs. NYG) | -11.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Falcons (vs. NE) | +6.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Steelers (at LAC) | +5.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (at TEN) | +10.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. MIA) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. SF) | +6.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. DET) | -11.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (vs. DAL) | -2.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Seahawks (vs. ARI) | +2.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (at BUF) | +7.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (at CHI) | -4.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Vikings (vs. GB) | +2.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Saints (at PHI) | +0.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Football Team (at CAR) | +3.5 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. CIN) | +1.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Panthers (vs. WAS) | -3.5 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (at LV) | -1.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. IND) | -7.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. BAL) | +4.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Packers (at MIN) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Eagles (vs. NO) | -0.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (at CLE) | +11.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at KC) | +2.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Cardinals (at SEA) | -2.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at JAX) | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Titans (vs. HOU) | -10.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (at NYJ) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. PIT) | -5.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at ATL) | -6.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Giants (at TB) | +11.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 11 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 29-21 (58.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Falcons +6.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Vikings +2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Texans +10.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Seahawks +2.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chiefs -2.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Falcons are a +5 in our HIGBEE model this week, representing our best value. Teams in this spot are 7-3 ATS on the season. Our preseason market-implied power ratings would have made this game close to a pick ’em.
…The Packers continue to defy the advanced metrics, as they are 12th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA despite the 8-2 record. Minnesota, meanwhile, is eighth in DVOA with a disappointing 4-5 mark. The Vikings have one of the best (and few remaining) home-field advantages in the NFL. It would not surprise us if they closed the favorite here.
…The Titans have won six straight games, including showdowns with the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints the last five weeks. Could this be a spot where they exhale for a minute? Backing Houston is gross but we can’t help ourselves.
…With Kyler Murray looking like he is unlikely to play, the odds have shifted to reflect the Seahawks as nearly a field goal favorite, so we will grab the stale contest line with Seattle. If the Seahawks can’t beat Colt McCoy & Co. in this spot, talks of the Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll eras coming to an end in Seattle could heat up in earnest.
…Do the Chiefs have their mojo back? It sure looked like it in their Week 10 destruction of the Raiders. While the resurgence of Patrick Mahomes and the offense garners the headlines, the defense has quietly been much-improved lately with the return of Frank Clark on the edge, which has allowed the elite Chris Jones to shuffle back inside where he is at his most disruptive.
Week 12 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 12:30 PM | FOX | Chicago (-3.5) at Detroit |
| Thur | 4:30 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at Dallas (-7) |
| Thur | 8:20 PM | NBC | Buffalo (-4.5) at New Orleans |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Houston (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-3.5) at Indianapolis |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Atlanta (-1) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina (-1.5) at Miami |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee at New England (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Philadelphia (-2.5) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-2) at Denver |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams at Green Bay (-1.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Minnesota at San Francisco (-2.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Cleveland at Baltimore (-4.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Seattle (-3.5) at Washington |
