Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 13 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 33-19-0 ATS (63.5%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 20-9-0 ATS (69.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 8-4-0 ATS (66.7%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers (at CIN) | +3.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (vs. ARI) | +8.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (vs. DEN) | -9.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (vs. NE) | -2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. DAL) | +5.5 | +2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. IND) | +9.5 | +2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. SF) | +3.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Falcons (vs. TB) | +11.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (at MIA) | +4.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at LAR) | +13.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. BAL) | +5.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (vs. MIN) | +7.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Vikings (at DET) | -7.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Eagles (at NYJ) | -6.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Jets (vs. PHI) | +6.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 |
| Football Team (at LV) | +2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Raiders (vs. WAS) | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Buccaneers (at ATL) | -11.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. NYG) | -4.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Rams (vs. JAX) | -13.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Ravens (at PIT) | -5.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at NO) | -5.5 | -2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (at HOU) | -9.5 | -2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at SEA) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at CHI) | -8.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (at KC) | +9.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at BUF) | +2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. LAC) | -3.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 13 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 2-3
- YTD: 34-26 (56.7%)
This week’s picks:
- Cowboys -5.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Chargers +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Seahawks +3.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Chiefs -9.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bills -2.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
Dallas should get back receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, which is good news for QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. The Saints are circling the drain and will be without star running back Alvin Kamara and bookend tackles Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead. It looks like Taysom Hill will get the start here but he’s returning from a concussion with no weapons and a battered offensive line.
…The Chargers are a HIGBEE +5, our model-indicated best value of the week. Sagarin makes this only L.A. +1.5, while our preseason, market-implied power ratings would have made the Bolts a small favorite.
…The Niners look like a Super Bowl contender once again, having detonated the Rams, Jaguars and Vikings the last three weeks, scoring 30+ points in each. In Seattle, it looks like the end of the Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson eras, with the Seahawks having dropped three straight and six of seven. Nonetheless, we’ll take the bait and the points at home and see if Wilson can keep it close. Both Sagarin and our preseason, market-implied power ratings have this close to a pick ’em.
…It looks like Denver is the choice among professional bettors this week, especially for those able to grab Broncos +10 earlier in the week. Likewise, we expect Denver to be a popular pick in this pool, and since we have ground to make up, we’ll lay the number with the Chiefs. Kansas City is a HIGBEE +3 this week, pointing toward some positive regression.
…The Bills have, at times this season, looked like the best team in the NFL, although the loss of star corner Tre’Davious White to an ACL tear is a huge blow. New England is the NFL’s public darling right now, winners of six straight and seemingly rebuilt on the fly, thanks to the emergence of rookie QB Mac Jones. Our preseason, market-implied power ratings would have made this Bills -7 so we’ll lay under a field goal here.
Week 14 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | Pittsburgh at Minnesota (-4) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Carolina (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Seattle (-6.5) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-1) at Cleveland |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at Kansas City (-10) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New Orleans (-6) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at Tennessee (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Dallas (-4.5) at Washington |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at L.A. Chargers (-7.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Detroit at Denver (-8.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Buffalo at Tampa Bay (-3.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Chicago at Green Bay (-11) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | L.A. Rams at Arizona (-2.5) |
