Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 13 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 30-31-0 ATS (49.2%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 17-14-0 ATS (54.8%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-4-0 ATS (33.3%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings (vs. NYJ) | -2.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (at NE) | -3.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (vs. SEA) | +8.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at CIN) | -1.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (at DAL) | +11.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. LAC) | +1.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Saints (at TB) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (vs. CLE) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Broncos (at BAL) | +9.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bears (vs. GB) | +4.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. MIA) | -3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Lions (vs. JAX) | +0.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Falcons (vs. PIT) | -0.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Titans (at PHI) | +5.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Commanders (at NYG) | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. TEN) | -5.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. WAS) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Steelers (at ATL) | +0.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (at DET) | -0.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Browns (at HOU) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. DEN) | -9.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Packers (at CHI) | -4.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (at SF) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. NO) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Chargers (at LV) | -1.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (vs. IND) | -11.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. BUF) | +3.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at LAR) | -8.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. KC) | +1.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jets (at MIN) | +2.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
Week 13 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 41-19 (68.3%)
- Rank: T-3 out of 2,038 (99.7th percentile)
This week’s picks:
- Patriots +3.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Broncos +9.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Titans +5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Rams +8.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- 49ers -3.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
Given the Bills’ uneven recent play, questions about Josh Allen’s health and rumors of an illness ravaging the Buffalo locker room, we rolled with the Patriots on TNF. It was a bad call — one of our worst calls of the year — and Buffalo thoroughly dominated a New England side whose playoff hopes are on life support.
…There isn’t much of a football reason to back the Broncos, who should have already fired the supremely overmatched Nathaniel Hackett by now. Alas, Hackett remains — along with the much-maligned Russell Wilson — and this is one of the more dire situations in the league. Nonetheless, Denver was +1.5 on the offseason look-ahead and +6.5 as recently as last week. So we’ve traveled through the all-important 3 and 7, plus a slew of secondary keys. It’s hideous and possibly ill-advised, but let’s dumpster dive with the Broncos.
…Mike Vrabel and the Titans have become a near auto play as underdogs in big spots, as this team just keeps finding a way. From a numbers perspective, there are some things to like too. The Titans were +1 on the offseason look-ahead, so we have surged through the all-important 3 and the secondary key of 4. Philadelphia has struggled to stop the run, but that could change with rookie Jordan Davis coming back from injury and being joined by recent veteran signings Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. If the Eagles are stout against the run, Ryan Tannehill is positioned to have success a depleted Philly secondary.
…It looks like Matthew Stafford is done for the season, so the Rams will roll with John Wolford this week. From the summer til now, this is one of the larger line moves you’ll ever see. L.A. was -9.5 on the offseason look-ahead, so we have ripped through the 7 and the 3, then the 3 and the 7 on the other side of 0, as well as plenty of secondary keys along the way. The live market is now showing SEA -6.5, so locking in the contest line of LAR +8.5 offers some value.
…The Dolphins still haven’t lost a game that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished, but that should change today. In a game that is a showdown between Kyle Shanahan and his star pupil Mike McDaniel, Miami is compromised on the offensive line without bookend tackles Austin Jackson and Terron Armstead. That could spell danger against Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ fierce pass rush. The Dolphins’ injury concerns have pushed this game to SF -5 in live markets so there is a bit of value on the locked-in contest line of SF -3.5.
Week 14 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Las Vegas (-5.5) at L.A. Rams |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Minnesota (-2.5) at Detroit |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Houston at Dallas (-14.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Philadelphia (-6.5) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-4) at Pittsburgh |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-8.5) at Denver |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-6.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Carolina at Seattle (-6.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Miami (-1.5) at L.A. Chargers |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | New England (-2) at Arizona |
