Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 14 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 35-21-0 ATS (62.5%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 21-9-0 ATS (70.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 9-4-0 ATS (69.2%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears (at GB) | +11.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (at CLE) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. SEA) | +7.5 | +3 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Football Team (vs. DAL) | +4.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Giants (at LAC) | +9.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Rams (at ARI) | +2.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Panthers (vs. ATL) | -2.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Saints (at NYJ) | -5.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at TEN) | +8.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. DET) | -8.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Bengals (vs. SF) | +1.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (at MIN) | +3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Vikings (vs. PIT) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Raiders (at KC) | +9.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Chiefs (vs. LV) | -9.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bills (at TB) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. BUF) | -3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at CAR) | +2.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Jets (vs. NO) | +5.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Titans (vs. JAX) | -8.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (at DEN) | +8.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 49ers (at CIN) | -1.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. LAR) | -2.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Browns (vs. BAL) | -2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at HOU) | -7.5 | -3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at WAS) | -4.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Chargers (vs. NYG) | -9.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. CHI) | -11.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 14 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 38-27 (58.5%)
This week’s picks:
- Ravens +2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cowboys -4.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Texans +7.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Broncos -8.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bears +11.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Browns are stacking up to be the professional side here, desperately needing a win out of the bye to keep their playoff hopes alive. But this line shifted from Baltimore -1 on the look-ahead to Cleveland being favored by 2.5, so we’ll value play the Ravens. Baltimore lost star CB Marlon Humphrey, but is Baker Mayfield and his dearth of weapons the ones to exploit that?
…Backing Dallas in this spot goes against our HIGBEE model, but we’ll do it anyway. The Cowboys are 8-4 and getting healthy at a great time. Star receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are back on the field. The offensive line is at full strength. And the defense has gotten some chess pieces back the last couple weeks. Washington is 30th in defensive passing DVOA and will be without elite pass rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young. The Dallas offense should roll.
…Seattle showed some pride and summoned the courage to knock off hated division foe San Francisco at home last week, but now what? The Seahawks’ playoff odds have dwindled to <2% and now they’re laying more than a TD on the road? This roster and coaching staff hates each other and are counting down the days until it’s over.
…The Lions have nothing to play for after avoiding eternal shame and winning their first game of the season last week against Minnesota. Now Detroit travels to the Mile High City without its only two notable offensive weapons in D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, plus Swift’s backup Jamaal Williams. The Broncos should have no problems against this COVID- and flu-battered XFL roster.
…Backing the incompetent Matt Nagy and his merry band of inept QBs against Bear killer Aaron Rodgers is as masochistic as it gets, but here we are. Chicago is a HIGBEE +5, which represents our best value and is 9-4-0 ATS (69.2%) on the season. After Rodgers’ flippant remarks toward the Bears earlier this season, let’s hope the Chicago locker room finds some fortitude on national TV.
Week 15 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | Kansas City (-3) at L.A. Chargers |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | NFLN | Las Vegas at Cleveland (-5.5) |
| Sat | 8:20 PM | NFLN | New England (-1) at Indianapolis |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Arizona (-12.5) at Detroit |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at Buffalo (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington at Philadelphia (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Dallas (-10) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Miami (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at Jacksonville (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee (-2.5) at Pittsburgh |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Cincinnati (-3) at Denver |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Atlanta at San Francisco (-7.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-2) at Baltimore |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Seattle at L.A. Rams (-7) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-11.5) |
| Sun | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Minnesota (-4) at Chicago |
