Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 14 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 23-33-0 ATS (41.1%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 9-11-0 ATS (45.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans (at MIA) | +13.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. HOU) | +5.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. GB) | +6.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (at BAL) | +7.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (vs. IND) | +0.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Saints (vs. CAR) | -5.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Eagles (at DAL) | +3.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Broncos (at LAC) | +2.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. TB) | -2.5 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Patriots (at PIT) | +5.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. DET) | +3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (vs. BUF) | -2.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. JAX) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at SF) | +10.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Raiders (vs. MIN) | +3.5 | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Vikings (at LV) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| 49ers (vs. SEA) | -10.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Jaguars (at CLE) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (at KC) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. NE) | -5.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (at CHI) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (at ATL) | +2.5 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Chargers (vs. DEN) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (vs. PHI) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Colts (at CIN) | -0.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at NO) | +5.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. LAR) | -7.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Packers (at NYG) | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (at NYJ) | -5.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. TEN) | -13.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 14 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 36-24 (60.0%)
- Rank: T-234 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Jets +5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bengals +0.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Raiders +3.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bills +2.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
We know Zach Wilson isn’t the long-term answer for the Jets, but he is better than Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian, both of whom are done after disastrous turns at the helm. Our market-implied power ratings make this short of a field goal. So let’s grab some closing-line value with Jets +5.5 as this game trends toward closing 3 with a comically low total of 33.
…Carolina currently sits +6 in the market, so we’re bucking the CLV a bit here, but this is a hard sell on a New Orleans team we’ve been lower than the market on all season. We don’t trust Dennis Allen, Pete Carmichael or Derek Carr, who is coming off a concussion in the Lions game. Bryce Young has had an extremely trying rookie season but he’s shown at least a pulse the last couple weeks. Let’s roll with the divisional dogs against a team we don’t like.
…The offseason look-ahead line on Bengals-Colts was Cincy -9, so being able to play the Bengals as a small dog at home, even with Jake Browning at QB, seems like a reasonable value to us. This game currently sits Cincy -2.5 and could even flirt with closing at 3, so let’s lock in some CLV and hope Browning plays with the surprising promise he displayed in Jacksonville on MNF.
…Credit to the Vikings for the effort they’ve displayed after Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury. Minnesota has balled out with Joshua Dobbs under center and now gets franchise WR Justin Jefferson back, but laying a FG-plus on the road is a bridge too far, even against the forever beleaguered Raiders. Our market-implied power ratings make this short of a FG.
…The Bills’ 6-6 record does them no justice, as they rank dead last in our EPA-based luck rankings. It would have been nice to get a full field goal here, but our market-implied power ratings make this less than 2. The Chiefs are in a rare, perhaps even unprecedented, mini-swoon in the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era, and now get a desperate Buffalo team off a bye.
Week 15 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Las Vegas |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | NFLN | Minnesota (-1) at Cincinnati |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | NFLN | Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (-3) |
| Sat | 8:15 PM | FOX | Denver at Detroit (-4.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta (-3) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at Cleveland (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Kansas City (-10) at New England |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Miami (-13.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston (-3.5) at Tennessee |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | San Francisco (-13.5) at Arizona |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Washington at L.A. Rams (-6.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Dallas at Buffalo (-1) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Baltimore (-3.5) at Jacksonville |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Philadelphia (-4) at Seattle |
