Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 15 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 36-25-0 ATS (59.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 21-10-0 ATS (67.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 9-5-0 ATS (64.3%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football Team (at PHI) | +7.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. DAL) | +10.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (at DEN) | +2.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. GB) | +7.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (at MIA) | +10.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at LAC) | -2.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (vs. SEA) | -4.5 | +2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Patriots (at IND) | +2.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at BUF) | +10.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Saints (at TB) | +10.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Raiders (at CLE) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. HOU) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Steelers (vs. TEN) | +1.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at SF) | +9.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bears (vs. MIN) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. ARI) | +12.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Cardinals (at DET) | -12.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Browns (vs. LV) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (at JAX) | +3.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Titans (at PIT) | -1.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. ATL) | -9.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Vikings (at CHI) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Colts (vs. NE) | -2.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. CAR) | -10.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. NO) | -10.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at LAR) | +4.5 | -2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. KC) | +2.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. NYJ) | -10.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. WAS) | -7.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at NYG) | -10.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. CIN) | -2.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Packers (at BAL) | -7.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 15 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 41-29 (58.6%)
This week’s picks:
- Chiefs -2.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Colts -2.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Giants +10.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bengals +2.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Vikings -3.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
The Chiefs are a model play (HIGBEE +3), a math play (we make this around KC -4) and have revenge after losing to the Chargers in Week 3. Kansas City is fourth in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA, while the Chargers are only 11th, thanks to having a defense that ranks in the NFL’s bottom third.
…How fortunate have the Patriots been in 2021? They’ve played Tampa Bay in a driving rain. Buffalo in gale force winds and a subzero wind chill. Cleveland without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Tennessee without Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Atlanta without Cordarrelle Patterson. And just for good measure: the Jets twice, a struggling Tua Tagovailoa, Davis Mills and Sam Darnold’s chalk outline. New England should finally meet its match against the surging Colts.
…There is really nothing from an X’s and O’s perspective to justify backing the Giants. But New York is a +5 in our HIGBEE model this week, and we would have made this game Dallas -3.2 on a neutral field prior to the season. Even without Daniel Jones and even if home-field advantage isn’t worth much here, getting to a spread north of 10 is tough. Let’s back the boys from Gotham and pray for an old-school NFC East rock fight.
…We are not quite getting the best of the line in the Cincinnati-Denver game, as there are 3’s available in the market, but we’ll take the plunge on Bengals +2.5 anyway. Cincy is a +5 in our HIGBEE model, representing a tremendous value. Vic Fangio plays man coverage at the highest rate in the league, which is something that Joe Burrow can exploit with matchup nightmares Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. On the other side of the ball, Cincy has a formidable run D that can keep the Broncos’ power rushing attack in check.
…The Vikings have been one of the NFL’s most maddening teams this season, losing tons of games at the last second. They’re 6-7 but firmly in the NFC wild card race. Football Outsiders says Minnesota’s underlying metrics correlate to 7.5 wins. Chicago’s season is over. The Bears are a dismal 26th in offensive DVOA, but they’re also falling apart on D. Chicago is 24th in defensive DVOA and sinking like a rock as the injuries and illnesses pile up. The locked-in contest line is Vikings -3.5 but that number has moved through the secondary key of 4 all the way out to 6, so we’ll take advantage.
Week 16 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | NFLN | San Francisco (pk) at Tennessee |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | FOX | Cleveland at Green Bay (-7) |
| Sat | 8:15 PM | NFLN | Indianapolis at Arizona (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at Atlanta (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-11) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams (-3) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-9) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore at Cincinnati (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-10.5) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Buffalo at New England (-2) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (-1) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Chicago at Seattle (-7) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-9.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Denver (-1) at Las Vegas |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Washington at Dallas (-9.5) |
