Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 15 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 36-34-0 ATS (51.4%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 20-14-0 ATS (58.8%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 3-4-0 ATS (42.9%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders (vs. NE) | +1.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (vs. PHI) | +8.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. SF) | +3.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. CIN) | +3.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Steelers (at CAR) | +2.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. DET) | -1.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (at DEN) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at BUF) | +7.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. BAL) | -2.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (at WAS) | +4.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Titans (at LAC) | +2.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. LAR) | -6.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Falcons (at NO) | +4.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at HOU) | -14.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at JAX) | -4.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Colts (at MIN) | +4.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Vikings (vs. IND) | -4.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. DAL) | +4.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Texans (vs. KC) | +14.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. ATL) | -4.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Rams (at GB) | +6.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Commanders (vs. NYG) | -4.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. TEN) | -2.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Ravens (at CLE) | +2.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. MIA) | -7.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. ARI) | -2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (at NYJ) | +1.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Panthers (vs. PIT) | -2.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Bengals (at TB) | -3.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at SEA) | -3.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (at CHI) | -8.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at LV) | -1.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 15 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 5-0
- YTD: 49-21 (70.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Seahawks +3.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Colts +4.5: 1 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Ravens +2.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Bears +8.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Buccaneers +3.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
We opened the week with the Seahawks at home on TNF. With Brock Purdy making his first road start and doing it in primetime in a hostile venue like Seattle, we figured it was a good time to sell high on the scorching 49ers, but it didn’t pan out.
…Let’s lock in some closing-line value with the Colts at +4.5, as live markets currently show +3.5 across the board. Indianapolis played the Cowboys tough two weeks ago, trailing 21-19 entering the fourth quarter before getting bombed into oblivion by 33 fourth-quarter Cowboys points. The Colts are coming off a bye and facing a Vikings team the market continues to sell. Indy’s D does a solid job of limiting yards after the catch, which is of paramount importance against Justin Jefferson.
…Baltimore has featured the NFL’s No. 1 run D by EPA per play since Roquan Smith arrived in Week 11. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s D ranks 32nd in rushing EPA per play. These late-season games that are outdoors in cold weather, especially in divisional matchups, seem to favor the team with the edge on the ground, and the Ravens own that on both sides. Baltimore was available at -7 on the look-ahead just a few weeks ago, so this line represents too drastic a move, even sans Lamar Jackson.
…The Bears have lost six straight and have failed to cover each of the last four, while the Eagles have won four straight and covered each of the last three. Nonetheless, Chicago is off a bye, so we should see the Bears throw the kitchen sink at this one. Philly was -2.5 on the offseason look-ahead, and while the impact of priors has melted away by this point in the season, we’re buying Justin Fields & Co. at the bottom. Although look-ahead spots in the NFL are less of a thing than in college — if even a thing at all — would anyone fault the Eagles for peeking ahead just a bit to a Christmas Eve showdown in Dallas for what could be the NFC East title?
…Speaking of priors and buying low, let’s roll the dice on the Bucs as they fight for their playoff lives in what’s become a hotly contested NFC South race. Again, we’re not saying the market is serving up a bad number, but Tampa was -3 on the offseason look-ahead, meaning we’ve come off the all-important key of 3 on one side of zero and gone all the way through it on the other side. We’ll grab the 3.5 with the Bucs and cross our fingers for an all-in effort.
Week 16 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (-1.5) |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit (-2.5) at Carolina |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Baltimore (-6.5) |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | FOX | Seattle at Kansas City (-9.5) |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-5) |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | CBS | Buffalo (-10) at Chicago |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | CBS | New Orleans at Cleveland (-3) |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cincinnati (-3) at New England |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at Tennessee (-8.5) |
| Sat | 4:05 PM | CBS | Washington at San Francisco (-6.5) |
| Sat | 4:25 PM | FOX | Philadelphia at Dallas (-1) |
| Sat | 8:15 PM | NFLN | Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay at Miami (-4) |
| Sun | 4:30 PM | CBS | Denver at L.A. Rams (PK) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Tampa Bay (-3) at Arizona |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | L.A. Chargers (-3) at Indianapolis |
