Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 15 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 26-33-0 ATS (44.1%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 11-11-0 ATS (50.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders (at LAR) | +6.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Jets (at MIA) | +9.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. TB) | -3.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Chargers (at LV) | +3.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Colts (vs. PIT) | -2.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (at CLE) | +3.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (vs. DAL) | -2.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Titans (vs. HOU) | -2.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (at DET) | +5.5 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Panthers (vs. ATL) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Eagles (at SEA) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. NYG) | -5.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bengals (vs. MIN) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. KC) | +9.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at ARI) | -13.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Cardinals (vs. SF) | +13.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Ravens (at JAX) | -3.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Jaguars (vs. BAL) | +3.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Vikings (at CIN) | +3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at NE) | -9.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (at NO) | +5.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at CAR) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (vs. PHI) | +3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. DEN) | -5.5 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (at TEN) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at BUF) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. LAC) | -3.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Steelers (at IND) | +2.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Browns (vs. CHI) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (at GB) | +3.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Dolphins (vs. NYJ) | -9.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Rams (vs. WAS) | -6.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
Week 15 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 40-25 (61.5%)
- Rank: T-189 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Vikings +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Steelers +2.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Lions -4.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Panthers +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Jets +9.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Vikings should close +3, so we’re grabbing at least 4.5% CLV here. Nick Mullens takes over at QB for Minnesota. Not only is he an upgrade over Joshua Dobbs, Mullens ranks 24th out of 95 QBs since 2012 in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation (minimum 500 drop-backs). We also get the superior D as Minnesota ranks sixth in DVOA, while Cincy checks in at 25th.
…The respected sharp book Pinnacle makes Steelers-Colts a near pick ’em, so let’s roll the dice with Mitchell Trubisky on the road, as gross as that sounds. The Steelers have remained an oddly simple team to handicap: take them as underdogs and avoid like the plague when they’re asked to lay points. Of course, it’s not that simple, but it sure seems like it, doesn’t it? The highly useful CLV tool provided by Unabated Sports reveals taking the Steelers as 5.5% CLV.
…We added the Lions late on Saturday evening in a “get right” spot against a Broncos team that is playing its third-straight road game and struggles to stop the run.
…Since 1989, teams that have closed +3 with a total of less than 35 are 35-27-7 ATS (56.5%). Add the hook and those ties become wins, pushing the situational record to 42-27-0 ATS (60.9%) for a sterling 17.8% ROI. That’s the situation the Panthers find themselves in today, hosting the Falcons. It is admittedly ugly, but Carolina is the play.
…The Jets are another team that finds itself in an advantageous spot situationally. Since 1989, dogs of 7.5 or better with a total of less than 37 are 137-107-2 ATS (56.1%). Zach Wilson played shockingly well for the Jets last week, while Miami’s offense scuffled in a surprise loss to the Titans. Now, Tyreek Hill’s status is up in the air after he left last week’s game. Gang Green it is.
Week 16 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | New Orleans at L.A. Rams (-4) |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | NBC | Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (pk) |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Peacock | Buffalo (-10) at L.A. Chargers |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit (-2.5) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Indianapolis at Atlanta (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-5.5) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland at Houston (-1.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Washington at N.Y. Jets (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Seattle (-2) at Tennessee |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Jacksonville (-2.5) at Tampa Bay |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Arizona at Chicago (-3) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Dallas at Miami (pk) |
| Sun | 8:15 PM | NFLN | New England at Denver (-5.5) |
| Mon | 1:00 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at Kansas City (-10.5) |
| Mon | 4:30 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-10.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ABC | Baltimore at San Francisco (-5.5) |
