Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 16 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 40-27-0 ATS (59.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 24-12-0 ATS (66.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 11-7-0 ATS (59.7%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams (at MIN) | -2.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Football Team (at DAL) | +9.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Browns (at GB) | +7.5 | +2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (vs. IND) | -0.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Falcons (vs. DET) | -6.5 | +2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Ravens (at CIN) | +2.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. DEN) | +1.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at NO) | +3.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. SF) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (at CAR) | -10.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. LAC) | +9.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Jets (vs. JAX) | +0.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (at PHI) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bears (at SEA) | +6.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Chiefs (vs. PIT) | -7.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Bills (at NE) | +2.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Patriots (vs. BUF) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at TEN) | -3.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Panthers (vs. TB) | +10.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Chargers (at HOU) | -9.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at NYJ) | -0.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. NYG) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. CHI) | -6.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (at KC) | +7.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. CLE) | -7.5 | -2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (at ARI) | +0.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (at ATL) | +6.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bengals (vs. BAL) | -2.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Broncos (at LV) | -1.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Saints (vs. MIA) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Vikings (vs. LAR) | +2.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. WAS) | -9.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 16 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 45-30 (60.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Browns +7.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Cardinals -0.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Bengals -2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chiefs -7.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Dolphins +3.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
Fading Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field on Christmas feels un-American, almost Grinch-like, but we’re going to do it anyway. The Browns are in desperation mode, with their season hanging in the balance, but they get QB Baker Mayfield and head coach and play caller Kevin Stefanski back from the COVID list. There is risk that Rodgers annihilates this compromised Browns D, but we make this game closer to Packers -5, so we’ll go value hunting with Cleveland.
…While the Colts and Cardinals seem like two trains headed in opposite directions, the same thing could have been said about the 49ers and Titans on Thursday night, and we all know what happened in that game. Arizona gets stalwart center Rodney Hudson back, so let’s see if Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray and Co. can get the sputtering Cards offense back on track.
…The Ravens have lost three straight and four of six as mounting injuries on defense have been too much to overcome. But now the quarterback room is gutted too, and the Ravens will start third-stringer and veteran journeyman Josh Johnson today. This line has ballooned to Cincy -7 and could keep ticking up as we approach kickoff, so we’ll capitalize on the stale contest line.
…Pittsburgh’s offense has been destitute all season, but the Steelers defense has now collapsed too, ranking 26th in EPA per play since Week 11. Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins (read: any capable QB) have carved them up in that span. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense has been one of the better turnaround stories in the NFL after ranking 29th in EPA per play over the first 10 weeks but ranking third over the last five weeks. Tyreek Hill’s being announced in helped send this line all the way out to 10, so we’ll happily lay the lesser contest number.
…Credit to the New Orleans D for shutting down a discombobulated and suddenly injury-riddled Buccaneers offense last week. But the wrong team may have been favored when this contest line was locked in at Saints -3.5, and that was before we knew rookie Ian Book would get his first career start. The Dolphins have won six straight games to save their season and have ranked in the top 10 in offensive EPA per play and in the top 5 in defensive EPA per play over the last five weeks. The Saints offense has completely collapsed since Jameis Winston went down. They rank 30th in EPA per play over the last five weeks as neither Trevor Siemian nor Taysom Hill were the answer.
…
Week 17 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Buffalo (-13.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Las Vegas at Indianapolis (-8.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at New Orleans (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-11) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Philadelphia (-3) at Washington |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Giants at Chicago (-4.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-4) at Cincinnati |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at New England (-16.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami at Tennessee (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Denver at L.A. Chargers (-6) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Houston at San Francisco (-15) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Arizona at Dallas (-2.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams (-3) at Baltimore |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Detroit at Seattle (-9) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Minnesota at Green Bay (-6.5) |
| Sun | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-1) |
