Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 16 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 26-35-0 ATS (42.6%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 11-12-0 ATS (47.8%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons (vs. IND) | -0.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. SEA) | +2.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. CIN) | +1.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Chargers (vs. BUF) | +11.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Vikings (vs. DET) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at MIA) | +1.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. WAS) | -3.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Texans (vs. CLE) | +2.5 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at TB) | +1.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (vs. LV) | -10.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Giants (at PHI) | +11.5 | +2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (at CAR) | -4.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (at CHI) | +4.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Broncos (vs. NE) | -6.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Saints (at LAR) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Rams (vs. NO) | -3.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Ravens (at SF) | +5.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| 49ers (vs. BAL) | -5.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Panthers (vs. GB) | +4.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. ARI) | -4.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Patriots (at DEN) | +6.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Commanders (at NYJ) | +3.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Browns (at HOU) | -2.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. JAX) | -1.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Raiders (at KC) | +10.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Eagles (vs. NYG) | -11.5 | -2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (at PIT) | -1.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Bills (at LAC) | -11.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (at MIN) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. DAL) | -1.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at TEN) | -2.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (at ATL) | +0.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 16 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 43-27 (61.4%)
- Rank: T-165 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Bengals -1.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Vikings +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Falcons -0.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cardinals +4.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Patriots +6.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Sunday
We opened the weekend laying the cheap contest line of CIN -1.5 for a game that closed CIN -3. But the CLV was all for naught as the Steelers steamrolled their division rivals in Pittsburgh.
…Let’s roll with MIN +3.5 and bank on the Vikings’ top 5 defense by DVOA and substantial home-field advantage to stay inside the number against the Lions. The highly useful CLV tool provided by Unabated Sports reveals a whopping 10.3% CLV thanks to the market currently showing this as only MIN +3 (-116).
…Staying with the CLV theme, let’s grab 11.5% vs. the projected closing number and take the Falcons at home against a Colts team that has been playing over its head. We have the good fortune of being able to take ATL -0.5 when this game looks like it will close closer to ATL -3. Taylor Heinicke steps back in at QB for the Falcons and can’t be any worse than turnover-prone Desmond Ridder (10 INTs, 11 fumbles). Indy has been the eighth-luckiest team by Pythagorean expectation, while Atlanta checks in at just 20th.
…While the Bears have been an improved team on D and with Justin Fields back in the captain’s chair on offense, laying more than a field goal feels like a big ask, especially against a dynamic QB like Kyler Murray. Murray’s 15-4-2 ATS as a dog in his career, covering by an average of nearly 9 points.
…New England-Denver is currently sitting as high as NE +7 in the market, with even some 7.5’s showing on the board. As dismal as the Pats’ season has been, this is simply too many points to lay for a Broncos’ team whose surprising amount of success has largely been fueled by unsustainable turnover luck. Our market-implied power ratings make this closer to DEN -5.
Week 17 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | N.Y. Jets at Cleveland (-5.5) |
| Sat | 8:15 PM | ABC | Detroit at Dallas (-5.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tennessee at Houston (-4.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Arizona at Philadelphia (-10) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-2) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | San Francisco (-13.5) at Washington |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams (-6) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami at Baltimore (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at Indianapolis (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New England at Buffalo (-12) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Atlanta at Chicago (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Carolina at Jacksonville (-7.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Pittsburgh at Seattle (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Cincinnati at Kansas City (-7) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers at Denver (-6.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Green Bay at Minnesota (-2) |
