Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 17 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 41-28-0 ATS (59.4%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 24-12-0 ATS (66.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 11-7-0 ATS (59.7%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons (at BUF) | +14.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. DET) | -7.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. TB) | +13.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Football Team (vs. PHI) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. LAR) | +5.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. HOU) | -11.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (at CHI) | +5.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Raiders (at IND) | +6.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at DAL) | +5.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (vs. KC) | +4.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at NE) | +15.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (at TEN) | +3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chargers (vs. DEN) | -6.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Panthers (at NO) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. CLE) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Vikings (at GB) | +6.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Packers (vs. MIN) | -6.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Chiefs (at CIN) | -4.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. JAX) | -15.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. MIA) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Broncos (at LAC) | +6.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. CAR) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (at PIT) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. NYG) | -5.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (vs. LV) | -6.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (vs. ARI) | -5.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (at SEA) | +7.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (at NYJ) | -13.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (at WAS) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Rams (at BAL) | -5.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (at SF) | +11.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. ATL) | -14.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 17 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 49-31 (61.3%)
This week’s picks:
- Falcons +14.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Eagles -3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Seahawks -7.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cardinals +5.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Packers -6.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
There is really nothing from either a matchup or numbers perspective to warrant backing the Falcons here, but we need to go a bit contrarian to make up ground in the contest, so we’ll roll the dice on Atlanta, which is a HIGBEE +4, the best value of the week on our board. (Pretty gross definition of value, isn’t it?)
…Philly represents an opportunity to grab a stale contest line, as the Eagles are now out to -6 in the market as Washington’s COVID situation worsens.
…Detroit’s competitiveness and resilience have been a nice story, and while the Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll era looks like it is winding down in Seattle, we can’t help but lay it with the Seahawks. Tim Boyle is one of the least qualified NFL starters of the last several decades. He threw 1 TD against 13 INTs at UConn across three seasons before moving down a level to FCS Eastern Kentucky, where he didn’t fare much better with 11 TDs and 13 INTs in his only season there.
…We’re probably about to put our hand onto a flaming stove with the Cardinals, but we’ll do it anyway. This line was Dallas -2.5 on the look-ahead but the books simply can’t drum up any interest in an Arizona team that’s in free fall. Against our better judgment, we’ll buy low on the Cards and sell high on the surging Cowboys.
…Minnesota was shaping up to be the professional side on Sunday Night Football on the Frozen Tundra, but then Kirk Cousins hit the COVID list and this number took off like a hot-air balloon. If you’ll remember earlier this season, Dallas was forced to start Cooper Rush on SNF and surprised the Vikings anyway. But that’s not happening against Aaron Rodgers, so we’ll take the locked-in contest line of Packers -6.5.
Week 18 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-10.5) at Detroit |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans (-3.5) at Atlanta |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at Minnesota (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Dallas (-3.5) at Philadelphia |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at Tampa Bay (-16.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-17) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cincinnati at Cleveland (-1.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee (-9.5) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis (-9.5) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New England (-2.5) at Miami |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-3.5) at Denver |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-2.5) at Las Vegas |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Seattle at Arizona (-5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | San Francisco at L.A. Rams (-6.5) |
