Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 18 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 46-29-0 ATS (61.3%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 25-12-0 ATS (67.6%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 11-7-0 ATS (59.7%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars (vs. IND) | +15.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. TEN) | +10.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. LAC) | +3.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Broncos (vs. KC) | +10.5 | +3 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Dolphins (vs. NE) | +6.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. CIN) | -6.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. NO) | +4.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at ARI) | +6.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (vs. SF) | -5.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at PHI) | -7.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Vikings (vs. CHI) | -3.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. WAS) | +6.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at TB) | +8.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Packers (at DET) | -4.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Lions (vs. GB) | +4.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Steelers (at BAL) | +5.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. PIT) | -5.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Jets (at BUF) | +16.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. NYJ) | -16.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Eagles (vs. DAL) | +7.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (at MIN) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Football Team (at NYG) | -6.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. CAR) | -8.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Bengals (at CLE) | +6.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Saints (at ATL) | -4.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. SEA) | -6.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| 49ers (at LAR) | +5.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Chiefs (at DEN) | -10.5 | -3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at MIA) | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Titans (at HOU) | -10.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at LV) | -3.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (at JAX) | -15.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 18 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 5-0
- YTD: 54-31 (63.5%)
- Rank: T-14 out of 2,421
This week’s picks:
- Broncos +10.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Lions +4.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Jaguars +15.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Seahawks +6.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Raiders +3.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Broncos catching double digits at Mile High in a rivalry game is an auto-play for us, even if Denver technically “doesn’t have anything to play for.” Sagarin makes this KC -7, and our weighted, market-implied power ratings make it closer to 6. If Drew Lock can minimize the turnover-worthy throws — a tall order, to be fair — the Broncos can comfortably stay inside this number.
…QB Jared Goff returns for a Lions team that has played with something to prove all season, and that should translate to success against a Packers team that has secured a bye and will undoubtedly field a watered-down lineup in this spot, even if Aaron Rodgers says he’s going to play. Green Bay can be run on, and the Lions have the offensive line to do it. Detroit can win this game outright.
…The Jaguars will take the field against the Colts in what should be a spectacle, as Jacksonville fans are planning a “Klown out” to protest the continued employment of much-maligned GM Trent Baalke. Let’s see if the Jaguars adopt an us-against-the-world mindset here and give Indy all it can handle. Both Sagarin and our market-implied power ratings make this line around 12, and the Jags are a HIGBEE +5, our best value of the week.
…The perception exists that the Cardinals fixed what ailed them in last week’s upset of the Cowboys, but in reality, Arizona’s offense had only a 39% success rate. Now the Cards get a Seahawks team whose offense is finally trending up as Russell Wilson’s finger heals and Rashaad Penny paves the opposition. Seattle is No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per rush since Week 13 and should have more success here against a Cards D that has been porous since J.J. Watt’s season-ending injury.
…When clicking on all cylinders, the Chargers are a superior team to the Raiders, but Las Vegas simply refuses to die. The Raiders looked dead on arrival after losing 48-9 to the Chiefs and falling to 6-7. But they’ve since rattled off three straight wins, albeit against below-average or COVID-ravaged opponents. Nonetheless, Vegas is a HIGBEE +4 and we’ll take the field goal plus the hook against an L.A. team that hasn’t shown itself to be trustworthy.
