Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2022 debut this week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 2 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 0-0-0 ATS
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 0-0-0 ATS
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 0-0-0 ATS
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets (at CLE) | +6.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. CHI) | -9.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Broncos (vs. HOU) | -9.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (at JAX) | -3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at NYG) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Eagles (vs. MIN) | -1.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. SEA) | -9.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at PIT) | -2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Rams (vs. ATL) | -10.5 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Titans (at BUF) | +9.5 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Commanders (at DET) | +1.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (vs. LAC) | -4.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. MIA) | -3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. ARI) | -5.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. CIN) | +8.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (at NO) | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. TB) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bengals (at DAL) | -8.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at KC) | +4.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at BAL) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at LV) | +5.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (vs. WAS) | -1.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. TEN) | -9.5 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at LAR) | +10.5 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. NE) | +2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at SF) | +9.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. CAR) | -2.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Vikings (at PHI) | +1.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. IND) | +3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (at DEN) | +9.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (vs. NYJ) | -6.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bears (at GB) | +9.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 2 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 3-2 (60.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Patriots -2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- 49ers -9.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cardinals +5.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cowboys +8.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
While the Patriots are a HIGBEE +3 value play, this is more about fading what we believe to be a very poor Pittsburgh team, in spite of last week’s upset of the Bengals. The Steelers enjoyed a +5 turnover margin and still would have lost if it weren’t for Minkah Fitzpatrick’s blocked PAT that forced OT. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is compromised, and Bill Belichick against Mitchell Trubisky is a mismatch.
…Using offseason market-implied power ratings, we would have made the Panthers and Giants close to a pick ’em, so let’s take the points with what should be a hungry Carolina team coming off a narrow Week 1 loss to the Browns. The Giants have had a virtually non-existent home field advantage since moving to MetLife Stadium, and QB Daniel Jones has played better on the road than at home. Carolina it is.
…The 49ers held the Bears to a paltry 3.6 yards per play in Week 1 but were a hard-luck loser on a flooded, sloppy track at Soldier Field. Trey Lance should benefit immensely from being back in the dry, sun-kissed confines of Levi’s Stadium. Seattle’s Super Bowl may have been last week, upsetting the Broncos in Russell Wilson’s highly anticipated homecoming. Now the Seahawks travel on short rest and do so without star safety Jamal Adams. Here’s betting that the 49ers have their way.
…While we are down on Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray — and boy did the Cardinals get boat raced in Week 1 by the Chiefs — offseason market power ratings would have made the Raiders a small favorite here, likely inside of a field goal. This is an aggressive line move, well off the three. Both teams should be desperate to avoid going 0-2, and this has the makings of a game that goes down to the wire.
…Prior to Dak Prescott’s injury in Week 1, the Cowboys were -2.5 on the look ahead line, meaning that the market move out to Cincinnati -8.5 implies Dak is worth a bonkers 11 points. Pro tip: He just isn’t. Backing Cooper Rush is dangerous, but the move through the two most important numbers in football — the 3 and the 7 — and even the secondary key of 8 are enough for us to bite.
Week 3 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at Minnesota (-7.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Baltimore (-3) at New England |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Las Vegas at Tennesseee (PK) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Philadelphia (-3) at Washington |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-3) at Indianapolis |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at Chicago (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Buffalo (-4.5) at Miami |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cincinnati (-6) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at L.A. Chargers (-9) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-3) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams (-4.5) at Arizona |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Seattle (-3) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | San Francisco at Denver (-3) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-3.5) |
