Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 2 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings (at PHI) | +7.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (at TB) | +2.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (at ARI) | -5.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Chiefs (at JAX) | -2.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Seahawks (at DET) | +5.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Panthers (vs. NO) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. CLE) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (vs. LV) | -9.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Commanders (at DEN) | +3.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Rams (vs. SF) | +7.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Patriots (vs. MIA) | +2.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Colts (at HOU) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jets (at DAL) | +9.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Falcons (vs. GB) | +1.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. LAC) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bengals (vs. BAL) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Ravens (at CIN) | +3.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Chargers (at TEN) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. NYJ) | -9.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Packers (at ATL) | -1.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Texans (vs. IND) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at NE) | -2.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Raiders (at BUF) | +9.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Broncos (vs. WAS) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| 49ers (at LAR) | -7.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. KC) | +2.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Lions (vs. SEA) | -5.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Saints (at CAR) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (at PIT) | -2.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. NYG) | +5.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Eagles (vs. MIN) | -7.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. CHI) | -2.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 2 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 3-2 (60.0%)
- Rank: T-389 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Vikings +7.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Bears +2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Falcons +1.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Jets +9.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +3.5: 7:15 p.m. ET on Monday
We led off the week with the Vikings on TNF, trying to lock in some closing-line value and get ahead of the Sunday rush. In spite of the turnovers, Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson were able to get us to the window.
…In what is a critical Year 3 for Justin Fields, as well as the Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus regime, the Bears got off to a horrific start, getting crushed by the Packers. Some things never change. Chicago was priced at -1 vs. Tampa on the offseason look-ahead line, so let’s take the extra points and back the Bears and pray for a modest bounce-back against Baker Mayfield & Co.
…The Falcons are a small dog in the contest, but in the market, they are all the way out to -3. That’s too much value to pass up. Jordan Love’s stat line in Week 1 looked great, but he had a very poor 39% success rate and managed to bail himself out with a few explosives. If he is that inconsistent from down to down again this week, that bodes well for the Falcons. For Atlanta’s offense, Desmond Ridder was lousy in Week 1, but Arthur Smith implemented an extremely conservative game plan. The Falcons will have to dial up the aggression this week against a more formidable opponent.
…The Cowboys should be one of the top “Joe” sides this week, as recreational bettors will be looking to load up on America’s Team on the heels of that 40-0 whitewashing of the Giants on SNF. And that’s not to mention the public’s appetite to sell the Jets due to Aaron Rodgers’ injury and their aversion to Zack Wilson. The hope here is that the Jets can have some success in the rushing game and keep the clock and the chains moving.
…The Panthers are a very modest value play on MNF. We expect this game to close flat 3, and from a game theory perspective, MNF games are lightly used in contests, as entrants tend to like to see their five picks wrap up by Sunday. Let’s see if we can capitalize and get a better effort from Bryce Young in his second career start.
Week 3 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans at Green Bay (-2) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Houston at Jacksonville (-8) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Chargers (-2) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee at Cleveland (-5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Denver at Miami (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New England (-1.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Buffalo (-6.5) at Washington |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Carolina at Seattle (-4.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Dallas (-11) at Arizona |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Chicago at Kansas City (-11.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Pittsburgh at Las Vegas (pk) |
| Mon | 7:15 PM | ESPN | Philadelphia (-6.5) at Tampa Bay |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | L.A. Rams at Cincinnati (-7) |
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | N.Y. Giants at San Francisco (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Detroit (-5.5) |
