Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 3 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 8-2-0 ATS (80.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 6-1-0 ATS (85.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 3-0-0 ATS (100.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets (at DEN) | +10.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at LV) | +4.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (at NE) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. CAR) | +8.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. CHI) | -6.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. ARI) | +7.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Falcons (at NYG) | +2.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Rams (vs. TB) | +1.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Eagles (at DAL) | +3.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| 49ers (vs. GB) | -3.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lions (vs. BAL) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chiefs (vs. LAC) | -6.5 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. CIN) | -2.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at MIN) | -1.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Football Team (at BUF) | +7.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. WAS) | -7.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Colts (at TEN) | +5.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. IND) | -5.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Ravens (at DET) | -7.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chargers (at KC) | +6.5 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (at PIT) | +2.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Vikings (vs. SEA) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Packers (at SF) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Panthers (at HOU) | -8.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bears (at CLE) | +6.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at JAX) | -7.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Giants (vs. ATL) | -2.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (at LAR) | -1.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. PHI) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patriots (vs. NO) | -2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Raiders (vs. MIA) | -4.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. NYJ) | -10.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 3 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 5-5 (50.0%)
Falcons (+2.5) at Giants
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, N.J.
- TV: FOX
The Arthur Smith era is off to a rough start in Atlanta. After getting smoked by Philadelphia at home in Week 1, the Falcons went on the road to Tampa last week and got drilled by the Buccaneers 48-25.
On paper it looks like two blowouts in a row, but the silver lining for the Falcons is that they entered the fourth quarter trailing just 28-25 against Tampa, before coming unglued thanks to a couple Matt Ryan pick-sixes.
Meanwhile, the Giants are also 0-2, thanks to a Week 1 blowout loss at the hands of Denver and then a narrow Week 2 defeat to the Washington Football Team on Thursday Night Football, a game in which New York held a small yards-per-play advantage.
In theory, getting to face an 0-2 team in the friendly confines of MetLife Stadium should be a good time for the Giants to get their first win of the season, but the problem is that MetLife just hasn’t offered the Giants much of a home-field advantage at all. In fact, we estimate that the Giants’ home-field advantage has been worth less than one point over the last decade.
Using our market-implied power ratings, we would have made the Falcons a half-point favorite on a neutral field prior to the season. If you want to give the Giants a point for home-field advantage, that’s fine, but we’re still two points off here.
Dolphins (+4.5) at Raiders
- When: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Allegiant Stadium; Paradise, Nev.
- TV: CBS
Miami enters this game 1-1 after sneaking past New England in Week 1 — despite a box score that indicates the Patriots were the better team — and then getting annihilated 35-0 at home by the Bills last week. To make matters worse, second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa won’t play this week after suffering cracked ribs during Buffalo’s assault of the Dolphins.
On the other side, Las Vegas is a surprise 2-0 after beating the Ravens in OT in Week 1 then upsetting the Steelers on the road last week. Veteran QB Derek Carr is your surprise NFL passing yards leader entering the week.
However, even with making necessary adjustments to each team’s power rating, this number is probably a touch inflated. Using our market-implied power ratings, we would have made this game roughly Miami -1 on a neutral field prior to the season. Last week’s look-ahead lines showed the Raiders as a 1.5-point favorite, so we’ve now moved to and through the key number of 3 and to and through the key number of 4.
Given the way Tua Tagovailoa has played thus far in his career, we’re not sure the move to veteran backup Jacoby Brissett is much, if any, downgrade. With a HIGBEE value of +4, Miami is our second-best value this week.
Saints (+2.5) at Patriots
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, Mass.
- TV: FOX
Last week, we predicted the injury-ravaged, road-weary Saints would have a letdown in Carolina after routing the Packers in Week 1, and our crystal ball was spot-on, as Carolina rolled 26-7. Things don’t get any easier this week as the Saints remain on the road for a third-straight week in the wake of Hurricane Ida, but some reinforcements in the lineup should help.
Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore missed Week 2 after having thumb surgery but is no longer listed on the injury report this week and will play. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson played hurt last week but was also a full practice participant by the end of this week and is a full go. Linebacker Pete Werner also returns after missing last week’s game.
The Saints are still down a few key guys, including suspended defensive tackle David Onyemata, injured center Erik McCoy and injured wide receiver Michael Thomas, but the situation is less dire than it was a week ago.
New England is 1-1, although you can make a case the Patriots should be 2-0. The Patriots, as Bill Belichick’s teams are wont to do, have feasted on young QBs so far, slowing down Dolphins’ second-year starter Tua Tagovailoa in Week 1 and terrorizing Jets rookie Zach Wilson in Week 2.
Even though we anticipated the Pats defense would be much-improved in 2021, we may need a few more data points to say anything definitive, especially after New England dominated inexperienced offenses the first two weeks.
Sean Payton and Jameis Winston — Week 2 no-show aside — represent a major step up in class for the Pats D. Prior to the season, we would have made New Orleans a 1.5-point favorite on a neutral field. Even though we haven’t moved through any key numbers, we are still willing to take the plunge on the Saints here.
Jets (+10.5) at Broncos
- When: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High; Denver, Colo.
- TV: CBS
Zach Wilson has had a miserable welcome to the NFL, throwing five interceptions over the first two weeks in losses to the Panthers and Patriots. It doesn’t get much easier here, as the Jets are set to face an elite Broncos D on the road at Mile High.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are off to one of the best starts in the NFL, going 2-0 with convincing road wins over the Giants and Jaguars. With the 0-2 Jets and a seemingly overmatched QB coming to town, Denver seems like a sure bet to move to 3-0.
Prior to the season, using our market-implied power ratings, we would have made Denver a 3.5-point favorite on a neutral field. Even with a two-point adjustment for home-field advantage, that still leaves us shy of the secondary key of 6, let alone the key number of 7. Last week’s look-ahead line made this Denver -8.5, so we’ve now moved through 10 — yet another key number.
This is the type of game you probably can’t even bear to watch if you’re backing the Jets, but this number has just continued to balloon, and at some point, if you have a strong enough stomach, the Jets are worth a contrarian roll of the dice.
Eagles (+3.5) at Cowboys
- When: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
- TV: ESPN
Philly heads to Dallas for Monday Night Football after a 1-1 start that includes a complete domination of Atlanta in Week 1 and then a narrow loss to San Francisco at home in Week 2, even though the Eagles “won the box score” in that one, holding a 6.1 to 4.5 yards-per-play edge over the Niners.
Dallas is also 1-1 — but a perfect 2-0 ATS — after giving the Buccaneers all they could handle in Week 1, then pulling off a small upset over the Chargers in Los Angeles last week, a game that always feels like a de facto home game since the Cowboys hold training camp in nearby Oxnard every year and have a legion of fans in California.
A couple different factors point to Philly being the side here. First of all, the Eagles are eighth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA through two weeks, while Dallas is just 14th.
Second, we know that home-field advantage is down sharply across the NFL in recent years, but that’s even more pronounced in the NFC East, where Dallas, Washington and the Giants in particular have displayed a nearly non-existent statistical home-field edge over the last decade.
This game feels like a coin flip — the way most NFC East games do, come to think of it — so we are happy to grab the ever-important key number of 3 plus the hook and back Philly under the bright lights of MNF.
Week 4 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | NFLN | Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at Chicago (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington (-1) at Atlanta |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at Buffalo (-15.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at Dallas (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis at Miami (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland (-2.5) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee (-6.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-6.5) at Philadelphia |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Arizona at L.A. Rams (-5.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Seattle at San Francisco (-3) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-1.5) at Denver |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-6.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Tampa Bay (-5.5) at New England |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers (-3) |
