Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 4 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 9-6-0 ATS (60.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 4-2-0 ATS (66.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-1-0 ATS (66.7%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders (at DAL) | +3.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Patriots (at GB) | +9.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at TB) | -0.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (at BAL) | -2.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. MIN) | +3.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Chargers (at HOU) | -5.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (vs. MIA) | -4.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. CLE) | +1.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Jets (at PIT) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eagles (vs. JAX) | -6.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (at CAR) | +1.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Titans (at IND) | +3.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| 49ers (vs. LAR) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bears (at NYG) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Broncos (at LV) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at DET) | +4.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. SEA) | -4.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. CHI) | -3.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Raiders (vs. DEN) | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Rams (at SF) | +1.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Colts (vs. TEN) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Jaguars (at PHI) | +6.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Panthers (vs. ARI) | -1.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. NYJ) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Dolphins (at CIN) | +4.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (at ATL) | -1.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Vikings (at NO) | -3.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Texans (vs. LAC) | +5.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. BUF) | +2.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. KC) | +0.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. NE) | -9.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. WAS) | -3.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 4 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 10-5 (66.7%)
- Rank: T-268 out of 2,030 (87th percentile)
This week’s picks:
- Commanders +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Seahawks +4.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bills -2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Patriots +9.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chiefs -0.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
Dallas’ season looked like it might be down the drain in Week 1 after losing to the Buccaneers and having Dak Prescott exit with a thumb injury that would require surgery. But things are all of a sudden looking a lot brighter after Cooper Rush engineered an upset of the Bengals in Week 2 and a road win against the Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
While Rush is now 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in his career as a starter, this might be a decent spot to sell the Cowboys. Washington has looked awful the last two weeks but should come in playing like a hungry dog here against a division rival that is on short rest.
Home-field advantage has dwindled across the NFL but we know it to be especially non-existent in the NFC East. Offseason look-ahead lines made this game DAL -5, and that was with Dak Prescott. The Commanders are a maxed-out +5 value according to the HIGBEE model, so let’s play Washington.
…Detroit was one of the nicer stories in the league through two weeks, losing a close but exciting game with the Eagles then lighting up the Commanders the following week. But after jumping out to a 14-0 lead last week against the Vikings, the Lions collapsed and dropped a 28-24 decision, a game that sure would have been nice to have as far as playoff hopes are concerned.
Now the Lions return home licking their wounds physically and metaphorically. D’Andre Swift and Amon-ra St. Brown have both been ruled out, and safety Tracy Walker is done for the year after tearing his Achilles against the Vikings. While the Seahawks’ defense is poor, Geno Smith has been a pleasant surprise so far, leading a more-competent-than-expected Seattle offense.
Detroit opened -6, so we are not exactly getting the best of the number here, but live markets currently show this number all the way down to DET -3.5, while offseason look-ahead lines made this only DET -1. So taking the locked-in contest line of SEA +4.5 is what we’ll do.
…Lamar Jackson has gone supernova to start the season for the Ravens, who have the No. 1 passing DVOA despite an uncharacteristically weak rushing offense that is 19th in DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bills are second in DVOA against the pass, and in spite of a rash of injuries in the secondary, held Miami’s explosive passing game in check last week. Buffalo was -4 on the look-ahead line, and HIGBEE makes them a +3 value, so we’ll take BUF -2.5.
…Losing Mac Jones is a big blow for the Patriots, but Brian Hoyer is a capable and professional backup, and New England ranks sixth in our schedule-adjusted net yards per play metric, giving us hope that the Pats can keep this game close with defense and the running game. Even though it would have been nice to grab a 10 or better, we still see value in the Pats at +9.5. Our HIGBEE model rates New England as a +4 value.
…It appears that pro bettors grabbed TB +3 with a vengeance, and this line has crashed through the zero, now reflecting the Buccaneers as a small favorite. The prevailing narrative, of course, is that Tom Brady is 99-0 (approximately) coming off a loss and 99-0 ATS (or something like that).
The problem is that Brady is now 45 years old and playing behind a badly compromised offensive line with a lesser group of receivers and tight ends. Sure, Tampa gets Mike Evans back this week, but Chris Godwin is a game-time decision, and at least at this point, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are not walking through that door to save the day.
Even if Buccaneers tackle Donovan Smith — another game-time decision — does indeed suit up, it won’t be at 100%. Give us the Chiefs and the best quarterback in the NFL, in his prime, and what quite honestly might even be the better defense right now at a near pick ’em. Kansas City it is.
Week 5 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 AM | Amazon | Indianapolis at Denver (-2.5) |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | NFL Network | N.Y. Giants vs. Green Bay (-7.5) at London, UK |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at New England (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at Minnnesota (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Seattle at New Orleans (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-8.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami (-5.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Buffalo (-13) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-1.5) at Cleveland |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at Jacksonville (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee at Washington (PK) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | San Francisco (-3.5) at Carolina |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Philadelphia (-4.5) at Arizona |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Dallas at L.A. Rams (-7) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Las Vegas at Kansas City (-7) |
