Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 6 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 14-13-0 ATS (51.9%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 8-6-0 ATS (57.1%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-3-0 ATS (40.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos (at LAC) | +4.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. CIN) | +1.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. NE) | -2.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. NYJ) | -7.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (vs. BUF) | +2.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Commanders (at CHI) | -1.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at ATL) | -5.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. TB) | +9.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Ravens (at NYG) | -5.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at IND) | +2.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Cowboys (at PHI) | +6.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. ARI) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Vikings (at MIA) | -3.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Rams (vs. CAR) | -10.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Panthers (at LAR) | +10.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (vs. MIN) | +3.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (at SEA) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Eagles (vs. DAL) | -6.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Colts (vs. JAX) | -2.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Giants (vs. BAL) | +5.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (at PIT) | -9.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. SF) | +5.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. WAS) | +1.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bills (at KC) | -2.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at CLE) | +2.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Jets (at GB) | +7.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (at NO) | -1.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. DEN) | -4.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 6 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 1-4
- YTD: 15-10 (60.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Falcons +5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bengals -1.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Dolphins +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Packers -7.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Broncos +4.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
San Fran was -6.5 on the look-ahead, but the Niners are now dealing with cluster injuries on the offensive line, defensive line and in the secondary. Arthur Smith’s Falcons have been more competitive than anyone anticipated, and this looks to be a solid spot for them. Atlanta has continued to take money in the market and is now down to +4 live.
…The Bengals have stumbled badly out of the gate after their surprise Super Bowl run, although an offensive line that was a problem spot early seems to be stabilizing. While New Orleans has a top-10 defense by both EPA per play and success rate, the Saints have major injury questions in the secondary, with Marshon Lattimore out and Paulson Adebo questionable. New Orleans also has a rash of injuries on offense, with receivers Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave all ruled out.
…Miami was a small favorite on the look-ahead line before Teddy Bridgewater went out with a concussion last week. Rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson will get the start, and while that gives us pause, he has elite weapons in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, plus the creative play calling and running game overseen by coach Mike McDaniel. The Vikings defense is 21st in EPA per play and a dismal 26th against the run.
…Laying more than a TD with the Packers after last week’s showing in London is risky business, but we’ll roll the dice one more time and hope for a get-right effort at Lambeau. The Jets have some fun pieces on offense, and the Green Bay D has been dreadful, but the J-E-T-S are a meager 22nd in EPA per play and 25th in success rate. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay is second in rushing success and should have no problem moving the chains against the Jets’ 24th-ranked rushing success D. Green Bay is an A-rated +4 value according to the HIGBEE model.
…The Broncos are also a HIGBEE value play this week on the road in L.A. for Monday Night Football. We like a few things about this situation. For starters, we believe Russell Wilson and the Denver offense have too many weapons to not improve at some point, and the Chargers D ranks just 26th in overall EPA per play, so this unit is nothing special. While L.A. possesses a prolific passing attack, the Broncos rank in the top five in both total defensive EPA per play and passing EPA per play. Last but not least, L.A. has zero home-field advantage to speak of.
Week 7 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 AM | Amazon | New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-10) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Cincinnati (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Jacksonville (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-6.5) at Washington |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Detroit at Dallas (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland at Baltimore (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis at Tennessee (-2) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Denver (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Houston at Las Vegas (-7) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Seattle at L.A. Chargers (-7.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Kansas City (-1.5) at San Francisco |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Pittsburgh at Miami (-6) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Chicago at New England (-6.5) |
