NFL Week 6: HIGBEE model, contest picks, analysis and look-ahead lines

Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.

During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.

This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.

Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.

We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.

In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).

Week 6 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model

  • YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 15-10-0 ATS (60.0%)
  • YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 4-5-0 ATS (44.4%)
  • YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
Team & OpponentLineHIGBEETeam JAMEISOpp. JAMEISTeam SNACKSOpp. SNACKSTeam WATTS
Broncos (at KC)+10.5+4+1+1+1+10
Browns (vs. SF)+5.5+4+1+10+1+1
Panthers (at MIA)+13.5+3+1-1+1+1+1
Vikings (at CHI)-2.5+3+1+1+1-1+1
Patriots (at LV)+3.5+3+1+1+1-1+1
Cardinals (at LAR)+6.5+3+1+1-1+1+1
Eagles (at NYJ)-6.5+2+1+1-1+10
Giants (at BUF)+14.5+2-10+1+1+1
Cowboys (at LAC)-1.5+2+1+1-10+1
Saints (at HOU)-1.5+1-1+1+1+1-1
Bengals (vs. SEA)-2.5+1-1+1+1+1-1
Commanders (at ATL)+2.5+1+1-1+1-1+1
Buccaneers (vs. DET)+3.5+1-1+1-1+1+1
Titans (vs. BAL)+4.5+1+1-1-1+1+1
Jaguars (vs. IND)-4.500+1-1+1-1
Colts (at JAX)+4.50-10-1+1+1
Ravens (vs. TEN)-4.5-1+1-1-1+1-1
Lions (at TB)-3.5-1-1+1-1+1-1
Texans (vs. NO)+1.5-1-1+1-1-1+1
Seahawks (at CIN)+2.5-1-1+1-1-1+1
Falcons (vs. WAS)-2.5-1+1-1+1-1-1
Chargers (vs. DAL)+1.5-2-1-10+1-1
Jets (vs. PHI)+6.5-2-1-1-1+10
Bills (vs. NYG)-14.5-20+1-1-1-1
Dolphins (vs. CAR)-13.5-3+1-1-1-1-1
Bears (vs. MIN)+2.5-3-1-1+1-1-1
Raiders (vs. NE)-3.5-3-1-1+1-1-1
Rams (vs. ARI)-6.5-3-1-1-1+1-1
Chiefs (vs. DEN)-10.5-4-1-1-1-10
49ers (at CLE)-5.5-4-1-1-10-1

Week 6 DraftKings Main Event Picks

  • Last week: 2-3
  • YTD: 12-13 (48.0%)
  • Rank: T-1,170 out of 1,580

This week’s picks:

  1. Vikings -2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
  2. 49ers -5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
  3. Panthers +13.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
  4. Patriots +3.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
  5. Giants +14.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday

Week 7 Look Ahead Lines

DayTime (ET)TVMatchup
Thur8:15 PMAmazonJacksonville (-1) at New Orleans
Sun1:00 PMFOXDetroit at Baltimore (-2.5)
Sun1:00 PMFOXLas Vegas (-1) at Chicago
Sun1:00 PMFOXAtlanta at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Sun1:00 PMCBSCleveland (-2.5) at Indianapolis
Sun1:00 PMCBSBuffalo (-8.5) at New England
Sun1:00 PMCBSWashington (-1.5) at N.Y. Giants
Sun4:05 PMFOXArizona at Seattle (-7)
Sun4:05 PMFOXPittsburgh at L.A. Rams (-3)
Sun4:25 PMCBSGreen Bay (-1.5) at Denver
Sun4:25 PMCBSL.A. Chargers at Kansas City (-6)
Sun8:20 PMNBCMiami at Philadelphia (-2.5)
Mon8:15 PMESPNSan Francisco (-7.5) at Minnesota