Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 6 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 15-7-0 ATS (68.2%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 11-5-0 ATS (68.8%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 5-3-0 ATS (62.5%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants (at LAR) | +9.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. DEN) | +3.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (at DET) | -3.5 | +3 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Cardinals (vs. CLE) | +3.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Patriots (at DAL) | +3.5 | +2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. LAC) | -2.5 | +2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at MIA) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. PIT) | +4.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Titans (at BUF) | +6.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. IND) | +9.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Buccaneers (at PHI) | -6.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Eagles (vs. TB) | +6.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Vikings (at CAR) | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Panthers (vs. MIN) | +1.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Packers (at CHI) | -4.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Bears (vs. GB) | +4.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Chiefs (at WAS) | -7.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Football Team (vs. KC) | +7.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Colts (at HOU) | -9.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Dolphins (vs. JAX) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Steelers (at SEA) | -4.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bills (vs. TEN) | -6.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at BAL) | +2.5 | -2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (vs. ARI) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at NE) | -3.5 | -2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. CIN) | +3.5 | -3 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Rams (at NYG) | -9.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. LV) | -3.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 6 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 1-4
- YTD: 13-12 (52.0%)
Week 5 was a brutal one as the Vikings, Browns and 49ers all had great shots to cover and failed:
- Minnesota (-9.5) took a 16-6 lead with 4:33 remaining then stopped Detroit on downs in Lions territory but then nearly lost outright to the Lions, who briefly took a 17-16 lead before having their hearts ripped out in typical Lions fashion.
- San Francisco held Arizona to just 303 yards of offense and held the edge in yards per play (5.7 to 5.1) but came away without points on too many drives and dropped a 17-10 decision in Trey Lance’s debut as a starter.
- Not only did Cleveland (+2.5) lead 42-35 late, but even after the Chargers cut it to 42-41 and were driving late for the winning points, L.A. appeared content to kick a short field goal for the win, which would have given Cleveland the cover. But Browns defenders literally dragged Austin Ekeler into the end zone intentionally so they could get the ball back, in the process giving L.A. a 47-42 lead, the win and the cover.
Back to the grind in Week 6!
(NOTE: There are only four write-ups this week, as we locked in the Eagles +6.5 on Thursday night for our first contest pick of the week. More on that outcome below.)
Bengals (-3.5) at Lions
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field; Detroit, Mich.
- TV: FOX
The Bengals are a sneaky +3 in our HIGBEE model this week, potentially due for some positive turnover regression as well as being hungry for some SNACKS after failing to cover each of the last two weeks.
Following Dan Campbell’s impassioned press conference after last week’s gut-wrenching loss to the Vikings, the Lions are a popular underdog this week, with many thinking they’ll beat the Bengals outright. Part of the problem is that Cincinnati has been such a poorly run organization under the ownership of the Brown family, people find it hard to trust them.
But the reality is that the Bengals are a team trending in the right direction and one that is an honest-to-goodness playoff contender in the AFC thanks to the golden arm of quarterback Joe Burrow and his college buddy, the frighteningly explosive Ja’Marr Chase.
While the overall efficiency of Cincy’s offense is still a work in progress (16th in DVOA), the Bengals defense has been a most pleasant surprise, checking in at seventh in DVOA, led by a run D that is 25% better than the average NFL rush D.
Meanwhile, Detroit is 25th in offensive DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA. Offensive line was supposed to be the team’s strength, but left tackle Taylor Decker remains out with an injury, and stud center Frank Ragnow is out for the season. Defensively, the Lions D is bad and injury-riddled.
From a pure numbers perspective, we make this game close to Cincy -4 using our weighted, market-implied power ratings, so in addition to fitting our HIGBEE model, the Bengals aren’t a bad math play either.
Rams at Giants (+9.5)
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, N.J.
- TV: FOX
The Rams have indeed morphed into the juggernaut that Sean McVay envisioned when L.A. traded for Matthew Stafford this offseason. The Rams are 4-1 and rank fifth in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA, including third on offense.
Meanwhile, the Giants are a dismal 1-4 and 23rd in total DVOA. GM Dave Gettleman and coach Joe Judge are firmly plastered to the hot seat. After a surprise win over the Saints in Week 4, the wheels came off at Dallas last week. Quarterback Daniel Jones left with a scary concussion and the Cowboys went up and down the field at absolute will in a 44-20 burial.
As bad as things looked last week, Jones looks like a go to play this week, and it will be fascinating to see if the Giants can scheme the ball into the hands of receiver Kadarius Toney. The rookie from Florida was a one-man Molotov cocktail against the Cowboys, breaking out with 13 targets, 10 receptions and 189 yards. If Toney’s performance is a harbinger of things to come, he has the ability to change the entire complexion of the Giants offense.
Using our preseason market-implied power ratings, we would have made this game Rams -6.1 on a neutral field. Even though we know the Giants don’t have much of a home-field advantage, it is remarkably difficult to arrive at L.A. laying nearly 10 points here, even after making in-season adjustments to account for recent form.
As good as the Rams have been, they have been pedestrian on the defensive side of the ball, checking in at 14th in DVOA — an equally mediocre 16th against the pass and 15th against the run. New York is a +4 in our HIGBEE model this week and this is gobs and gobs of points for an L.A. team crossing three time zones for a 1 p.m. ET start to lay. Let’s clench our jaws and back the G-men here.
Cowboys at Patriots (+4.5)
- When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, Mass.
- TV: CBS
The Cowboys are off to a blistering 4-1 start, a record that may slightly understate how good they’ve been, as Dallas is second in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA and has played at a level befitting a team with 4.2 wins.
On the other hand, New England has been wholly unimpressive as Bill Belichick and the Pats attempt to chart a future without Tom Brady. The Patriots are 2-3 and rank 20th in total DVOA. They gave Tampa a spirited battle in Week 4 but then nearly no-showed in Houston last week, before recovering to avoid what would have been an embarrassing loss to the moribund Texans.
On the surface, the Cowboys laying 4.5 points in Foxborough seems perfectly reasonable, until you consider priors. Using our preseason market-implied power ratings, we would have made Dallas a 1.5-point favorite on a neutral field, which means the Pats would be a pick or a small favorite at home.
In Week 1, Dallas closed +9 at Tampa Bay, which implies the Buccaneers are about 7 points better on a neutral field. In Week 4, New England closed +6.5 vs. Tampa Bay, which implies the Buccaneers are about 8.5 better than the Pats on a neutral field.
Using that makeshift math, you could expect the Cowboys again to be about a 1.5-point favorite vs. the Patriots on a neutral field, which aligns with our preseason power ratings. So even accounting for in-season adjustments and current form, it requires quite a leap to see how Dallas -4.5 is justifiable here.
The Pats’ offensive line has been injury- and COVID-riddled, but they do get back left tackle Isaiah Wynn here, which is a huge benefit to rookie QB Mac Jones. New England is a very respectable ninth in defensive DVOA, including eighth against the pass, which offers some hope they’ll be able to keep Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense in check.
Bills at Titans (+6.5)
- When: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Nissan Stadium; Nashville, Tenn.
- TV: ESPN
The Bills are the hottest team on the planet after destroying the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo ranks first in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA, a staggering 50% better than an average NFL team on a per-play basis. The Bills are 12th on offense and a dominant No. 1 on defense.
The Titans are 3-2 but it hasn’t been pretty. Tennessee ranks 26th in total DVOA. Preseason fears that the Titans might lose some of their mojo with the departure of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to Atlanta have become reality, as Tennessee is just 21st in offensive DVOA. The defense, which has been a problem for coach Mike Vrabel’s entire tenure in the Music City, remains leaky and ranks 27th in DVOA.
Despite everything outlined above, it is difficult to escape the fact that this number is inflated. Our preseason market-implied power ratings made the Bills about 4 points better than the Titans on a neutral field. Toss in a couple points for home-field advantage, and this line would have been around Buffalo -2 or -2.5 — inside a field goal.
Since the NFL moved extra-point attempts back, the 6 has become the third-most important number in NFL betting circles, trailing only the 3 and the 7. The reason was on display Thursday night when the Eagles, getting 6.5 points and trailing by 14 late, scored a touchdown, went for two, and got it against the Buccaneers, making it a 6-point game and sneaking in the backdoor for the cover.
Teams used to automatically take the PAT to cut it to 7. Now, the analytics say to go for it, and as a result, more and more games are landing on the ever-important 6. And that makes getting 6 plus the hook a valuable proposition.
Which takes us back to the Bills and Titans. Buffalo is a seemingly unstoppable force right now, and the market is asking you to pay a premium to back them. Let’s back the Titans here with the juicy 6.5 points and hope the Bills are a little bit flat after last week’s emotional win over the arch-enemy Chiefs.
Week 7 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | Denver at Cleveland (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cincinnati at Baltimore (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina (-2.5) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington at Green Bay (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-3.5) at Tennessee |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Miami (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at New England (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at L.A. Rams (-13.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Philadelphia at Las Vegas (-2) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Chicago at Tampa Bay (-10) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Houston at Arizona (-14.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Indianapolis at San Francisco (-5.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | New Orleans (-3.5) at Seattle |
