Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 8 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 18-11-0 ATS (62.1%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 12-8-0 ATS (60.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 5-3-0 ATS (62.5%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers (at CLE) | +3.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Panthers (vs. ATL) | +2.5 | +3 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at BUF) | +13.5 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. CIN) | +10.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at NYG) | -9.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Eagles (vs. DET) | -3.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Texans (at LAR) | -14.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. SEA) | +3.5 | +2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (at TEN) | -1.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Patriots (vs. LAC) | +5.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Broncos (at WAS) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. NO) | -5.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at MIN) | -1.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. ARI) | +6.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (at GB) | -6.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| 49ers (vs. CHI) | -3.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bears (at SF) | +3.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Titans (vs. IND) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at NE) | -5.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Football Team (vs. DEN) | +3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Saints (at TB) | +5.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Vikings (vs. DAL) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (at PHI) | +3.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Rams (vs. HOU) | +14.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at JAX) | -3.5 | -2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. CAR) | -2.5 | -3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Bills (at MIA) | -13.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. NYJ) | -10.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Giants (at KC) | +9.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (vs. PIT) | -3.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 8 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 2-3
- YTD: 18-17 (51.4%)
Last week we stumbled with a losing effort, pushing us back to the brink of .500 — at least 15 or more percentage points from what it will take to be in the mix to win the contest.
There are only four write-ups this week, as we locked in the Packers +6.5 on Thursday night for our first contest pick of the week. Let’s hope it was the first step in a clean 5-0 sweep for the week.
Dolphins (+13.5) at Bills
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, N.Y.
- TV: CBS
Buffalo comes into this game 4-2 and fresh off a bye but probably with a bitter taste in its mouth after losing to the Titans on Monday Night Football in Week 6.
On the other hand, the Dolphins come limping into Orchard Park with six straight losses after a Week 1 win in New England. The Dolphins are 1-8 against Bills coach Sean McDermott and have lost seven straight to Buffalo, including a 35-0 shellacking in Miami in Week 2.
When these teams played in Week 2, the Bills closed -3.5. Remove home-field advantage and we can conclude the market at that time thought Buffalo was about 5.5 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field.
Even though Buffalo thrashed the Dolphins as mentioned above, fast-forward to Week 8 and Miami is now getting a ridiculous 13.5 points. Again, take out the home-field advantage and we can conclude the market thinks Buffalo is 11.5 points better than Miami on a neutral field.
A six-point adjustment over a six-week stretch is a massive one in the NFL, not typically justifiable unless there is backup playing QB or a team hit with cluster injuries. That’s not the case for Miami, which actually might have young QB Tua Tagovailoa starting to hit his stride.
While Tua’s had a rocky start to his NFL career, since returning from injury two weeks ago, he’s looked pretty good and might be getting comfortable in the pros. While quality-of-opponent caveats apply — hey, it was the Jaguars and Falcons — Tua has completed 75% of his passes and averaged 310 passing yards per game over the last two weeks.
Tua and the Dolphins will step way up in class here to face a Buffalo D that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. But Miami should be anxious to earn some respect after the Week 2 no-show against Buffalo and represents a solid value this week thanks to this inflated line.
Buccaneers at Saints (+5.5)
- When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Caesars Superdome; New Orleans, La.
- TV: FOX
Defending Super Bowl champ Tampa Bay comes into this game 6-1, winner of four straight after destroying an overmatched Chicago team last week. Meanwhile, the Saints come into the game a solid 4-2 in 1 AD — that’s Year 1 After Drew (Brees).
When these two teams met at the Superdome in the NFC Divisional Round last season, the Saints closed -2.5. Fast-forward nine months and the Buccaneers are laying 5.5 points — a massive eight-point swing in the spread.
While Brees did retire and we can understand the adjustment to each team’s power rating, Brees’ arm was pretty much shot by the end of his career and he was no longer a threat to stretch the field and keep opposing defenses honest.
Even with star wide receiver Michael Thomas still out with an injury, and even with the Saints running a very conservative offense with Jameis Winston, there is simply not enough that has changed between these two teams to warrant such a discrepancy in the spread.
New Orleans had some injuries along the offensive line earlier this season, but both center Erik McCoy and left tackle Terron Armstead have returned, so this is one of the better units in the NFL once again.
Although New Orleans has gone with a run-heavy approach so far this season, let’s see if Sean Payton & Co. open up the playbook this week against a Buccaneers D that is elite against the run but injured and vulnerable in the secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the Saints defense has been key to the team’s success this season, ranking a formidable fifth in passing success rate and 11th in rushing success rate. Payton has been an auto-play as underdog during his tenure as head coach, and the Saints check enough boxes here to be worthy of backing in a monster revenge spot for them.
Cowboys at Vikings (+1.5)
- When: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium; Minneapolis, Minn.
- TV: NBC
The Cowboys head into Minnesota as one of the biggest surprises in the NFL to date, winners of five straight and fresh off a bye. But the dominant storyline this week has been the status of franchise QB Dak Prescott, who will be a game-time decision with a calf injury.
Dallas gets a Vikings squad that stumbled to a 1-3 start but has now won two straight and has a chance to get above .500 for the first time this season. Getting to 4-3 would be significant as Minnesota continues to chase the Packers in the NFC North.
If Dak can’t go, Dallas will trot out fifth-year pro Cooper Rush from Central Michigan for his first career NFL start. Whether it’s Dak or Rush, the Cowboys will face a typically stout Mike Zimmer pass defense, which ranks third in both EPA per dropback and dropback success rate.
On the other side of the ball, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has had a quietly solid start to the season, ranking 10th in EPA per dropback. He gets a Dallas defense that might be a touch overrated despite all the interceptions and defensive touchdowns. The Cowboys are 14th in dropback success rate and 16th in rushing success rate.
Getting the Vikings +1.5 is a bonus since the latest market odds have moved to Vikings -3 to reflect the uncertain status of Dak. With the Cowboys holding a commanding 3 1/2 game edge in the weak NFC East, this game means a lot more to the Vikings. Let’s take the stale contest line and roll with the Purple People Eaters on Halloween.
Giants at Chiefs (-9.5)
- When: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Mo.
- TV: NBC
The Chiefs come into Monday Night Football with tons of questions marks after an embarrassing 27-3 no-show loss to the Titans. Kansas City is now 3-4, playoff hopes officially in jeopardy and facing the first real turbulence of Patrick Mahomes’ time at the helm.
The Giants, meanwhile, are a bad team, likely to fire GM Dave Gettleman and coach Joe Judge at the end of the season and potentially even move on from QB Daniel Jones. They are 2-5 but did somehow manage to stop the bleeding last week with a 25-3 home win over the Panthers after getting humiliated by the Cowboys and Rams the previous two weeks.
Defense has been the glaring weakness for the Chiefs this season, as they are dead last in the NFL in dropback success rate and 31st in rushing success rate. But are the Giants really the team to exploit those weaknesses? New York is 24th in dropback success rate and 27th in rushing success rate. In other words, they don’t do anything well.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are second in passing efficiency and sixth in rushing efficiency. Mahomes, despite his nine interceptions, is third in EPA per play, behind only Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady. The Giants D shouldn’t provide a ton of resistance, as they’re 17th against the pass and 19th against the run.
As badly as the Chiefs have played, our weighted market-implied power ratings make this Kansas City -11, so laying less than 10 at home feels like a nice buy-low spot for Andy Reid & Co.
Week 9 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis (-14) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Minnesota at Baltimore (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Denver at Dallas (-7.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New England (-2.5) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Houston at Miami (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at New Orleans (-5.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Buffalo (-10.5) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Las Vegas (-3) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 4:05 AM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-3) at Philadelphia |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Green Bay at Kansas City (-2.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Arizona (-3.5) at San Francisco |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Tennessee at L.A. Rams (-4.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Chicago at Pittsburgh (-5) |
