Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 8 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 17-20-0 ATS (45.9%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 11-10-0 ATS (52.4%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-3-0 ATS (40.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers (at BUF) | +11.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. CIN) | +3.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. LV) | +1.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Steelers (at PHI) | +10.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Vikings (vs. ARI) | -3.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. BAL) | -1.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (vs. MIA) | +3.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. TEN) | +1.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Colts (vs. WAS) | -2.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Patriots (at NYJ) | -2.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Panthers (at ATL) | +4.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. DEN) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (vs. CHI) | -9.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. NYG) | -3.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Rams (vs. SF) | +0.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (at SEA) | +3.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| 49ers (at LAR) | -0.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bears (at DAL) | +9.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Broncos (at JAX) | +1.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. CAR) | -4.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. NE) | +2.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Commanders (at IND) | +2.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Titans (at HOU) | -1.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at DET) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Ravens (at TB) | +1.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at MIN) | +3.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. PIT) | -10.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Raiders (at NO) | -1.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (at CLE) | -3.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. GB) | -11.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 8 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 22-13 (62.9%)
This week’s picks:
- Buccaneers -1.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Broncos +1.5: 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +4.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Steelers +10.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Packers +11.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
We led off with the Buccaneers on TNF so we’re already behind the eight ball to start Week 8. Not good!
…The Russell Wilson/Nathaniel Hackett era is off to a disastrous start, with the Broncos ranking 31st in offensive EPA per play, 32nd in offensive success rate, 32nd in passing EPA and 32nd in passing success rate. Nonetheless, let’s go back to the well one more time with Denver. The Broncos were -6.5 on the off-season look-ahead, so they have crashed through a couple secondary keys plus the all-important 3, turning into a short dog.
…The Panthers delivered last week for us, shocking the Buccaneers with the outright win as a double-digit dog. We will double back on Carolina this week. This game was a pick ’em on the offseason look-ahead, and even with the Panthers’ QB woes, we have moved through some valuable real estate, including the key of 3 and the secondary key of 4.
…Pittsburgh narrowly got to the window against the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football, and like the Panthers above, we’ll go back to the well on the Steelers. Philadelphia will be a massive public side (and has been a frequent pro side the last couple years too), so the books have had to really fatten the number to get any takers. This game was Philly -3 on the offseason look-ahead, so we have moved more than a TD, blasting through some important numbers.
…If you had told us in August that the Packers would be catching double digits here, we would have said, “Damn, it’s a shame that Aaron Rodgers got hurt.” But Rodgers didn’t get hurt! He has just been that bad, and Green Bay’s D, which many were bullish on, has been a train wreck. Nonetheless, this game was Buffalo -4 on the offseason look-ahead, so this is simply a massive swing in terms of perception. We’ll back the Packers and hope this is the bottom.
Week 9 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 AM | Amazon | Philadelphia (-9) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Chargers (-3) at Atlanta |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at Cincinnati (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Minnesota (-2.5) at Washington |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami (-3.5) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Las Vegas (-1.5) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis at New England (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Buffalo (-10.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Seattle at Arizona (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay (-2) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Tennessee at Kansas City (-10.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Baltimore (-3.5) at New Orleans |
