Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 9 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 21-13-0 ATS (61.8%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 13-8-0 ATS (61.9%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 5-3-0 ATS (62.5%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars (at BUF) | +15.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Falcons (vs. NO) | +5.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Chiefs (at GB) | -7.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. PIT) | +6.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at HOU) | -6.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Chargers (vs. PHI) | -1.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Jets (at IND) | +10.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. MIN) | -5.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at NE) | +3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. CIN) | +2.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at SF) | +2.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (vs. DEN) | -9.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Broncos (at DAL) | +9.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. LV) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Raiders (at NYG) | -2.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. LAR) | +7.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Rams (at TEN) | -7.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Colts (vs. NYJ) | -10.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Vikings (at BAL) | +5.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. CAR) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Bengals (at CLE) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. ARI) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Texans (at MIA) | +6.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. LAC) | +1.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Packers (at KC) | +7.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. CHI) | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Saints (at ATL) | -5.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bills (vs. JAX) | -15.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 9 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 2-3
- YTD: 20-20 (50.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Broncos +9.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Falcons +5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Jaguars +15.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Vikings +5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bears +6.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS this season, so suffice it to say the books are making you pay a premium to back them at this point. And Denver, having just traded long-time franchise edge rusher Von Miller to the Rams this week, is extra unattractive to recreational bettors. Our preseason market-implied power ratings make this closer to Dallas -3.
…The Bills needed a generous gift from Tua Tagovailoa to back-door cover an inflated number last week vs. Miami, now they hit the road to play a Jaguars team that got annihilated by Geno Smith & Co. in Seattle last week. This is as ugly as it gets, but Jacksonville is a +5 in our HIGBEE model this week and also a math play, as our weighted, market-implied power ratings make this closer to Buffalo -11.
…The Falcons are dead-last in the NFL in DVOA, and their 1.7 Football Outsiders estimated wins are worse than even Detroit’s 2.1 estimated wins. But Atlanta is a +4 in our HIGBEE model and gets a Saints team that should be fat and happy after stunning the Buccaneers last week. The New Orleans D is incredibly formidable, and the Saints have the offensive line to protect whoever ends up starting at QB, but Atlanta is the system play here against a familiar divisional foe.
…Since there are some sixes available in the marketplace for Vikings-Ravens, we’re not exactly getting the best number here, but our weighted, market-implied power ratings make this game a bit closer than even the contest spread indicates. Baltimore is eighth in DVOA, but the Vikings are right there at 11th. In fact, the Vikings have more Football Outsiders estimated wins than Baltimore — 4.6 to 4.1. With the Ravens off a bye and the Vikings at rock bottom after losing to Cooper Rush in embarrassing fashion on Sunday Night Football, Minnesota is the ultimate buy-low here.
…The Steelers continue to be a remarkably predictable team under Mike Tomlin: back them as underdogs when they seem to be driven by an us-against-the-world mentality and fade them as favorites against opponents seemingly beneath them. We’re not sure what you’re going to get from the Justin Fields experience from week to week, but Chicago is a +3 in our HIGBEE model so let’s the roll the dice here on MNF.
Week 10 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | Baltimore (-6.5) at Miami |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at Pittsburgh (-9) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at Dallas (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-10.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland at New England (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Buffalo (-13.5) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New Orleans at Tennessee (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-7.5) at Washington |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Minnesota at L.A. Chargers (-3) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Carolina at Arizona (n/a) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Philadelphia at Denver (-1.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Seattle at Green Bay (-5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Kansas City (-3) at Las Vegas |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | L.A. Rams (-3) at San Francisco |
