Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 9 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 18-18-0 ATS (50.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 5-7-0 ATS (41.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills (at CIN) | +1.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Bears (at NO) | +8.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. TB) | -2.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Chiefs (vs. MIA) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at BAL) | +5.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Falcons (vs. MIN) | -4.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Commanders (at NE) | +3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (at CLE) | +8.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Colts (at CAR) | -2.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. NYG) | -1.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. LAC) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Titans (at PIT) | +2.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. TEN) | -2.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (at GB) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. LAR) | -3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at PHI) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Eagles (vs. DAL) | -3.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. KC) | +1.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. SEA) | -5.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Vikings (at ATL) | +4.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Patriots (vs. WAS) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (vs. ARI) | -8.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Panthers (vs. IND) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Giants (at LV) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at NYJ) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Saints (vs. CHI) | -8.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (at HOU) | +2.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Bengals (vs. BUF) | -1.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
Week 9 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 0-0 (contest rules call for 80 picks over first 17 weeks, hence one “bye”)
- YTD: 18-17 (51.4%)
- Rank: T-861 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Chiefs -1.5: 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday
- Vikings +4.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Commanders +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Ravens -5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cowboys +3.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
Kansas City was -5.5 on offseason look-ahead, so to get Patrick Mahomes and Co. at shorter than a FG is good for us. Miami has twice gotten walloped when stepping up in class this season — in Week 2 at Buffalo and Week 7 at Philly.
…The Vikings and Commanders picks represent fades of their opponents, the Falcons and Patriots, respectively. Neither Atlanta nor New England has any business laying more than a field goal in their current states.
…Lamar Jackson is 18-1 straight-up at home against the NFC during his career, and the Ravens offense appears to finally be finding its groove after a sluggish start under new OC Todd Monken. This game has moved through the secondary key of 6 in the market, so Baltimore at this number is a great value.
…Dallas has picked itself up off the mat nicely after being humiliated in San Francisco in Week 5. The Cowboys responded by beating the Chargers on MNF, then detonated the Rams after the bye week. This game should close flat 3, so grabbing the hook here is valuable.
Week 10 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Carolina at Chicago (-1.5) |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | NFLN | Indianapolis vs. New England (-1) at Frankfurt, DE |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Cleveland at Baltimore (-5.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | San Francisco (-2.5) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans (-2.5) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at Cincinnati (-7.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-1) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Atlanta (-2) at Arizona |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Detroit (-1) at L.A. Chargers |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-10) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Washington at Seattle (-6.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | N.Y. Jets (-2.5) at Las Vegas |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Denver at Buffalo (-8) |
