The 2021 NFL regular season is almost upon us, so today we look at three teams who we believe are poised to see a major boost in both on-field results and public perception.
Minnesota Vikings
- 2020 Actual W-L: 7-9
- 2020 Pythagorean W-L: 7.1-8.9
- 2020 One-Possession Game W-L: 5-4
- 2020 SOS: 6th
- 2021 SOS: 16th
The Vikings have been defensive stalwarts under Mike Zimmer’s leadership, finishing seventh, first, third and fourth in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric in the four seasons preceding 2020. But last season, the Vikings were waylaid by departures, injuries, a COVID-19 opt-out and even a rare mid-season trade.
First, starters Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Mackensie Alexander, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes left in free agency after the 2019 season.
Then franchise defensive end Danielle Hunter, who terrorized the NFL with 29 sacks in 2018-19, was sidelined for the entire 2020 season with a neck injury.
Four-time Pro Bowl linebacker Anthony Barr missed 14 games with a torn pectoral muscle, and star linebacker Eric Kendricks, a first-team All-Pro in 2019, missed five games with a calf injury.
Defensive tackle Michael Pierce — lured away from the Ravens on a three-year, $27M deal — opted out due to the pandemic. Edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, acquired in a trade with Jacksonville prior to the season, had five sacks in six games before being abruptly traded to Baltimore.
In hindsight, finishing 18th in defensive DVOA in 2020 is a testament to Zimmer’s defensive chops given the extreme personnel deficiencies he was left with. Now, he gets some reinforcements.
Hunter, Barr, Kendricks and Pierce all return in 2021, and that quartet is joined by free agent signings Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, Sheldon Richardson, Bashaud Breeland and even the return of the aforementioned Alexander.
The offense, led by veteran QB Kirk Cousins, should be a top-10-ish unit, thanks to a bevy of weapons including stud receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, bell cow running back Dalvin Cook, and emerging tight end Irv Smith Jr.
Last but not least, according to our research, the Vikings’ home-field advantage since 2000 equals about 3.7 points per game, second in the NFL to only the Seahawks’ 3.9. Therefore, it stands to reason that the return of fans to NFL stadiums this fall will be even more of a boon to the Vikings than it is to other teams.
Add it all up and the Vikings seem to hold value as NFC North champs at +250, and may even merit some loose couch change on their 40-1 Super Bowl odds.
Atlanta Falcons
- 2020 Actual W-L: 4-12
- 2020 Pythagorean W-L: 7.6-8.4
- 2020 One-Possession Game W-L: 1-8
- 2020 SOS: 1st
- 2021 SOS: 22nd
The Dan Quinn era is mercifully over in Atlanta. Brought in after having presided over the Legion of Boom in Seattle, it quickly became apparent that Seattle’s defensive dominance might have had something to do with the players rather than Quinn’s X’s and O’s.
Quinn went 14-23 over his last 2.5 seasons in Atlanta, as his team failed to get enough stops and was notorious for blowing huge second-half leads — not a great combo, if we’re being honest.
In comes Arthur Smith, the son of FedEx founder and CEO Fred Smith. While Junior may not be in line to take over the family business, he is carving out quite a legacy of his own after a sterling and most unexpected run as offensive coordinator of the Titans.
All Smith did in Tennessee was serve as the architect of perhaps the greatest quarterback makeover in NFL history in Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill went 42-46 over six seasons in Miami, throwing only 1.64 touchdowns for every interception he threw.
In Tennessee? Tannehill is 18-8 with 55 TD passes against only 13 interceptions, a totally insane 4.23-to-1 ratio and nearly 2.5 times better than his output in Miami. And before you suggest that the success was a product of the defense or bulldozer running back Derrick Henry, let us point out that the Titans went 11-5 last season despite finishing 29th in defensive DVOA and that Henry produced three unremarkable rushing seasons prior to Tannehill’s turn at the helm.
All of which leads us back to Smith. If Smith was indeed the straw that stirred the drink in Tennessee, Falcons fans should have a lot to be excited about. This was a team that, at least based on point differential and Pythagorean expectation, should have been close to an 8-8 team last season in spite of playing the NFL’s toughest schedule.
In 2021, the Falcons appear to be getting one of the game’s best young coaching minds, along with a schedule that rates as only the NFL’s 22nd-toughest. While Julio Jones is gone, Matt Ryan still has breakout star wide receiver Calvin Ridley and much ballyhooed rookie tight end Kyle Pitts to challenge defenses. It’s time to buy this Falcons team.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- 2020 Actual W-L: 1-15
- 2020 Pythagorean W-L: 3.9-12.1
- 2020 One-Possession Game W-L: 1-5
- 2020 SOS: 16th
- 2021 SOS: 32nd
The unnecessary side show Urban Meyer created by bringing Tim Tebow to camp to flop around like a baby seal at tight end has distracted fans from the Jaguars’ potential status as a surprise playoff contender this season.
Look, the AFC South wasn’t good to begin with. But if Deshaun Watson doesn’t take another snap in Houston, Indy’s quarterback situation remains in flux either because Carson Wentz is injured or terrible, and Tennessee regresses just a little bit, all of a sudden this division is wide open.
As bad as the Jaguars were last season, their 1-15 record was nearly three full wins beneath where it should have been based on Pythagorean expectation, so they’re already due for some positive regression.
While there is a narrative about college coaches failing in the pros, it doesn’t pass serious scrutiny. Sure, Steve Spurrier failed in Washington (12-20 in two seasons) but he did so while rotating through misfits Shane Matthews, Patrick Ramsey, Danny Wuerffel and Tim Hasselbeck at quarterback.
Nick Saban is often cited as another failure, but the reality is that Saban deserves a statue in Miami after going 15-17 while cycling through Gus Frerotte, Joey Harrington, Daunte Culpepper, Sage Rosenfels and Cleo Lemon at QB.
Meyer should succeed in Jacksonville for the same reasons Jimmy Johnson did in Dallas and Pete Carroll did in Seattle. Johnson had Troy Aikman, Carroll stumbled into Russell Wilson, and now Meyer gets Trevor Lawrence, who arrives with fanfare rivaled perhaps only by Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in the last 25 years.
Jacksonville faced the 16th-toughest schedule in 2020, but the Jaguars get the NFL’s easiest projected slate in 2021. Don’t be surprised if there’s some serious playoff buzz in #DUUUVAL come mid-December.
