Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the DraftKings Main Event NFL Season-Long Pick ‘Em Pool and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
During the 2021-22 seasons, we went 116-64 (64.4%) in the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, securing top-10 finishes out of 2,000-plus entries in each year.
This year, we’ll see if we can grind out a similar result in DraftKings’ event, while keeping an eye on graduating to Circa Million for 2024.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model, which makes its 2023 debut next week, as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
In 2021, teams that HIGBEE rated as value plays went 51-29 ATS (63.8%). Last season was a bit of a struggle, but HIGBEE value plays still finished 50-44 (53.2%).
Week 10 DraftKings Main Event Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 18-19-0 ATS (48.6%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 5-8-0 ATS (38.5%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 1-3-0 ATS (25.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots (vs. IND) | +1.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (at PIT) | +3.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (at DAL) | +16.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (vs. DEN) | -7.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Commanders (at SEA) | +6.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Panthers (at CHI) | +4.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. SF) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Titans (at TB) | +0.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Saints (at MIN) | -2.5 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Texans (at CIN) | +6.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Jets (at LV) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (at BAL) | +6.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. CLE) | -6.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (at LAC) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. DET) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Falcons (at ARI) | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (vs. ATL) | +1.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. CAR) | -4.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at JAX) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. TEN) | -0.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Vikings (vs. NO) | +2.5 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bengals (vs. HOU) | -6.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. NYJ) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (vs. WAS) | -6.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colts (vs. NE) | -1.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. GB) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. NYG) | -16.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (at BUF) | +7.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 10 DraftKings Main Event Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 22-18 (55.0%)
- Rank: T-667 out of 1,580
This week’s picks:
- Panthers +4.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Texans +6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Jaguars +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Packers +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Giants +16.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
No matter how bad Bryce Young has looked in his rookie season, Tyson Bagent shouldn’t be laying a field goal to anyone, let alone the 4.5 points dictated by the contest. This game closed 3, meaning the Panthers offered some significant CLV.
…The red-hot Bengals have won four-straight games and now rank 11th in DVOA, but Houston has been the surprise of the NFL behind hotshot rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Texans rank 13th in DVOA and eighth in a schedule-adjusted net yards per play stat we track. This game looks like it will close CIN -5.75-ish, giving HOU +6.5 some decent CLV.
…San Fran has wobbled after a 6-0 start, dropping three-straight games. Now the 49ers are being asked to travel across the country, albeit off a bye, and lay a FG plus the hook to a Jaguars team that ranks sixth in DVOA. We’ll back Trevor Lawrence and Co. here. #DUUUVAL
…Green Bay’s offense has been hideous and completely unwatchable, with coach Matt LaFleur and first-year starting QB Jordan Love both deserving their fair share of blame. Asking this offense to get going on the road against a formidable Pittsburgh D might be too much. But the Steelers offense isn’t much better, and much like we asked ourselves with the Bears, should Kenny Pickett be laying a FG or more to anyone? Green Bay is currently +3.25-ish in the market, and the Packers are a HIGBEE-rated value play this week.
…There is no football reason whatsoever for backing Tommy DeVito. However, since 1989, there have been 44 instances of NFL teams catching 14 or more points with a total of less than 39, and those dogs have gone a profitable 25-17-2 ATS (59.5%) for a 15% ROI. We’ll plug our noses and hope for the best here.
Week 11 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at Detroit (-8) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Dallas (-9) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Chargers (-3) at Green Bay |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Washington (-8) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-4) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Arizona at Houston (-4.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee at Jacksonville (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at Miami (-10) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-10) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-7) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Seattle (-3) at L.A. Rams |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Minnesota at Denver (-2.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Philadelphia at Kansas City (-3) |
