Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 10 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 23-25-0 ATS (47.9%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 14-12-0 ATS (53.8%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-3-0 ATS (40.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers (vs. ATL) | +2.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. DAL) | +5.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Broncos (at TEN) | +2.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. SEA) | -2.5 | +2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Commanders (at PHI) | +10.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Dolphins (vs. CLE) | -3.5 | +2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Lions (at CHI) | +2.5 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (vs. MIN) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Colts (at LV) | +5.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (vs. JAX) | -9.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Rams (vs. ARI) | -0.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Saints (at PIT) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (at NYG) | +4.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| 49ers (vs. LAC) | -7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at SF) | +7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. HOU) | -4.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. NO) | +1.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at LAR) | +0.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (at KC) | +9.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bears (vs. DET) | -2.5 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Vikings (at BUF) | +3.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Raiders (vs. IND) | -5.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (at MIA) | +3.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. WAS) | -10.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Seahawks (at TB) | +2.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Titans (vs. DEN) | -2.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at CAR) | -2.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at GB) | -5.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 10 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 29-16 (64.4%)
This week’s picks:
- Panthers +2.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Buccaneers -2.5: 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday
- Jaguars +9.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Packers +5.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chargers +7.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
For the second straight week we fired early with the dog on TNF. Carolina’s defense held the Falcons under 300 total yards in windy, rainy conditions, and the Panthers took a 25-15 decision.
…The Buccaneers face the Seahawks in the NFL’s first-ever game in Munich, Germany, with the teams squaring off at the home of fabled soccer side Bayern Munich. While Seattle appears to be the better team at the moment, we’ll pay to see if this is the bottom for Tampa. The Buccaneers were -9.5 on the offseason look-ahead, so this number has crashed through the two most important numbers in football, the 7 and the 3. If you’re looking to quibble with Seattle’s hot start, the Seahawks have played a Charmin soft schedule, ranking 30th in SOS.
…Jacksonville is much better than the 3-6 record indicates. The Jags are in the top 10 in several offensive metrics, including EPA per play (10th), overall success rate (sixth), passing EPA (seventh) and passing success rate (third), while the Chiefs rank in the bottom half of the league in defending each of those categories. While K.C. has a high-powered offense in its own right, the Jags counter with a league-average-ish D that is no pushover. Too many points here.
…This is a cover-your-eyes type bet on the Packers, especially given the injury report, but fading the Cowboys is always a noble roll of the dice, so here goes. Nine data points ago (i.e., before the season started), Green Bay was -4 in this spot. So we have now crashed through the 3 on both sides of zero. We used similar logic to back the Pack two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football against the Bills and got rewarded with a backdoor cover. Maybe the football gods will make it less eventful for us today.
…On paper, Sunday Night Football is a mismatch. San Fran’s new look running game with Christian McCaffrey could give fits to a Bolts D that ranks 31st in rushing EPA. On the other side of the ball, the Niners’ Nick Bosa-led pass rush should terrify Justin Herbert as he operates behind a battered offensive line. However, this game was a pick ’em on the offseason look-ahead. So we have traveled through the most valuable real estate in football betting, the 3 and the 7, and we’re getting the hook to boot.
A FEW OTHER NOTES: We gave the Broncos (+2.5) at Tennessee a long look. This was a pick ’em on the offseason look-ahead, but given that we hadn’t pushed through any key numbers, it became a pass. …From a closing-line value perspective, the Bills (-3.5) would have made a ton of sense. News that Josh Allen will start has pushed this line out to Bills -6.5, giving the locked-in contest number value. However, we figure this will be a heavily taken contest side. In a season-long contest like this, the goal should be to maximize payoff, not accuracy (Game Theory 101). So we’re passing on the CLV due to an anticipated huge volume of other contest goers on Buffalo.
Week 11 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Tennessee at Green Bay (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at N.Y. Giants (-4) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at Atlanta (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at Baltimore (-12.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington (-2.5) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams (-3) at New Orleans |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland at Buffalo (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Philadelphia (-10.5) at Indianapolis |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at New England (-4) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Las Vegas at Denver (-2.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Cincinnati (-5.5) at Pittsburgh |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Dallas (-2) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Kansas City (-5.5) at L.A. Chargers |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | San Francisco (-6) vs. Arizona at Mexico City |
