Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 11 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 25-26-0 ATS (49.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 16-12-0 ATS (57.1%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-3-0 ATS (40.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans (vs. WAS) | +3.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at BAL) | +13.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at LAC) | -5.5 | +3 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Patriots (vs. NYJ) | -3.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (vs. PHI) | +6.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. TEN) | -3.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Browns (at BUF) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. DET) | -3.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (at NO) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| 49ers (at ARI) | -8.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Bears (at ATL) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Broncos (vs. LV) | -2.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Cowboys (at MIN) | -1.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Bengals (at PIT) | -4.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Steelers (vs. CIN) | +4.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. CHI) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Raiders (at DEN) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Vikings (vs. DAL) | +1.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Titans (at GB) | +3.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Bills (vs. CLE) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (at NYG) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Saints (vs. LAR) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. SF) | +8.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Eagles (at IND) | -6.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jets (at NE) | +3.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Ravens (vs. CAR) | -13.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. KC) | +5.5 | -3 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Commanders (at HOU) | -3.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 11 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 33-17 (66.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Titans +3.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Colts +6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Lions +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cowboys -1.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Steelers +4.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
For the third straight week we fired early with the dog on TNF, and the Titans did not disappoint, battering the Packers 27-17. Green Bay’s furious fourth-quarter comeback victory in Week 10 against Dallas was confirmed to be more of a fluke than the start of a Packers turnaround.
…Let’s buy the Colts in Jeff Saturday’s home coaching debut. Philly is 31st in EPA rush D and 32nd in rushing success rate D, making this a big number to cover on the highway. Indianapolis was -3 on the offseason look-ahead, so we’ve gone through the zero, the all-important key of 3 and all the way through the secondary key of 6.
…Winning close games sure beats losing them, so all the credit in the world to Brian Daboll and the Giants, but the underlying metrics say New York is not a 7-2 team. The Giants are 15th in offensive DVOA and 24th in defensive DVOA. In fact, they check in at 19th overall in DVOA, one spot ahead of the Lions. The offseason look-ahead made this NY -1.5, so we show plenty of value in the current number in what appears to be a coin-flip game.
…Speaking of fraudulent records, let’s sell at the absolute top of the market on the 8-1 Vikings after their exhilarating and shocking come-from-behind win in Buffalo. Flashy record aside, Minnesota ranks 17th in total DVOA, while 6-3 Dallas comes in in at fourth overall. Dallas’ No. 2-ranked D should have Kirk Cousins running for his life today.
…Let’s round out the week by taking the Steelers +4.5 on the locked-in contest line. The current market shows this at PIT +3.5, indicating that the home dog has taken some professional money. Pittsburgh looks like a different team when T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick play. The former returned last week, with the latter slated to return this week. Mike Tomlin is 16-3-3 ATS as a home dog. Joe Burrow isn’t the same without Ja’Marr Chase. Get out those Terrible Towels.
Week 12 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 12:30 PM | CBS | Buffalo (-10) at Detroit |
| Thur | 4:30 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-7) |
| Thur | 8:20 PM | NBC | New England at Minnesota (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Denver (-2.5) at Carolina |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-3) at Cleveland |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at N.Y. Jets (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-4) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at Miami (-10.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cincinnati (-2) at Tennessee |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Atlanta at Washington (-3) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at Seattle (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams at Kansas City (-11) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | New Orleans at San Francisco (-8.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Green Bay at Philadelphia (-6.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (-3) |
