Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 12 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 26-28-0 ATS (48.1%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 16-13-0 ATS (55.2%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-4-0 ATS (33.3%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings (vs. NE) | -2.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (at MIA) | +13.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Raiders (at SEA) | +3.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Giants (at DAL) | +10.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Falcons (at WAS) | +4.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (vs. LAC) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (at SF) | +9.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Bills (at DET) | -9.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (at NYJ) | +6.5 | +2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Rams (at KC) | +15.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. CIN) | +2.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (vs. PIT) | -2.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. TB) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Eagles (vs. GB) | -6.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Panthers (vs. DEN) | +1.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (vs. BAL) | +3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Broncos (at CAR) | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Ravens (at JAX) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (at CLE) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Packers (at PHI) | +6.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bengals (at TEN) | -2.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Steelers (at IND) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. BUF) | +9.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Jets (vs. CHI) | -6.5 | -2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (vs. LAR) | -15.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at ARI) | -3.5 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (vs. NO) | -9.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (vs. NYG) | -10.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Commanders (vs. ATL) | -4.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (vs. LV) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Patriots (at MIN) | +2.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. HOU) | -13.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
Week 12 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 37-18 (67.3%)
- Rank: T-5 out of 2,038 (99.8th percentile)
This week’s picks:
- Lions +9.5: 12:30 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Giants +10.5: 4:30 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Vikings -2.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Raiders +3.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Saints +9.5: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
Detroit could be setting us up for a banana in the tailpipe, but let’s roll the dice on these Lions on Thanksgiving anyway. No Jeff Okudah in the Lions secondary gives us pause, but Josh Allen’s wonky elbow, the questionable status of Bills center Mitch Morse, and Buffalo’s injuries on D — Tremaine Edmunds, A.J. Epenesa, Micah Hyde and Gregory Rousseau are all out — give us hope Detroit can keep this close. Ben Johnson has quietly put together outstanding game plans for the Lions offense, so expect Jared Goff & Co. to score some points. Detroit needs a lot more from D’Andre Swift, who has been eased back in after injury.
…Freakazoid Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons should be licking his chops at the thought of chasing around Daniel Jones behind an injury-riddled Giants offensive line all afternoon, but let’s number-grab the Giants here for the hell of it. New York is ninth in rushing EPA, while the Cowboys are 18th defending it. Can Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka quickly wipe away the stench of last week’s hamblasting by the Lions and come up with a way to run enough to shorten this game? Jones isn’t a flashy passer, but he can help the offense with his legs and ranks 10th among qualified starters in QB EPA + CPOE, a catch-all metric for a QB’s contributions.
…While Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are no world-beaters, are we giving the Patriots a bit too much credit for stacking up wins against the likes of Zach Wilson (twice), Mitchell Trubisky, Sam Ehlinger, Jacoby Brissett and road/outdoors Jared Goff? We might be. Even though you wouldn’t know it by looking at last week’s 40-3 incineration at the hands of the Cowboys, the Vikings have one of the best home-field advantages left in the NFL. Let’s buy them on the bounce-back inside the all-important key of 3 and hope for a raucous home crowd on Thanksgiving in primetime.
…The Raiders are a dumpster fire and Josh McDaniels’ second stint as a head coach looks like it might not even last as long as his brief time in Denver. But, as lousy as Las Vegas has been, we know that priors matter, and the Raiders were -2 on the offseason look-ahead. Although going through the zero isn’t terribly significant, it’s the move through the all-important key of 3 that will get us to bite. Six of the Raiders’ seven losses are by one score or less. Jeff Sagarin’s model even makes Vegas a tiny favorite here.
…It would be nice to get 10 with the Saints but we’ll settle for 9.5 in a game that was SF -4 on the offseason look-ahead. Andy Dalton is no one’s long-term solution at QB, but the Red Rifle has quietly been decent this season, ranking 12th among qualifying QBs in EPA + CPOE, ahead of Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert to name a few. In a game where the total should close in the low 40s, this is a lot of points. (The John Wolford-led Rams got consideration here for the same reasons — in what would have been a cover-your-eyes-and-bet-’em-against-your-better-judgment spot against the Chiefs.)
Week 13 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Buffalo (-5.5) at New England |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Jacksonville at Detroit (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-2.5) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington (-1.5) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tennessee at Philadelphia (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Atlanta (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Denver at Baltimore (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland (-6.5) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Minnesota (-3) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Seattle (-3.5) at L.A. Rams |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Miami at San Francisco (-4.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-3) at Cincinnati |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Indianapolis at Dallas (-9.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-6.5) |
